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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arthur Radley who wrote (14750)	12/17/2004 4:48:09 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 52153

At Wachovia, events aren't expected before mid-January, after which about 8 weeks will be required to lock the data base and analyze results. So we may not hear much until the end of 1Q05 perhaps even later. Yes, the theory that the longer we wait for results, the better they should be, has been stated here by Peter at least once. ;-)

To: Arthur Radley who wrote (14750)	12/17/2004 4:51:01 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Do we have any followers of CTIC? Yes, I follow them very closely and am long. The indications indeed are that the drug is working, but one never can be sure until the trial is unblinded. They have another very promising drug (Pixantrone) also in the clinic. The company has something of a history of over-promotion, so the street is cautious. Funds are also tight at the company. Options are sky-high, so that isn't a cheap way to play. The other nugget of news released at their Wachovia presentation yesterday (available at the company website ctiseattle.com ) is excellent preliminary results of a pilot Phase II frontline ovarian trial to be presented at ASCO. Carboplatin plus xyotax in stage III/IV. 82 patients, 67 evaluable now. 64 of 67 had major response, with 57 having CR. That's impressive, assuming nothing funny about evaluable vs. non-evaluable patients. (SUPG has played that game in the past). Just by way of comparison, in the NEJM study of frontline ovarian Phase III/IV treated with cisplatin+paclitxel, response rates were 73%, with 51% CR. (Cyclophosphamide and Cisplatin Compared with Paclitaxel and Cisplatin in Patients with Stage III and Stage IV Ovarian Cancer, McGuire W. et. al., N Engl J Med 1996; 334:1-6, Jan 4, 1996). That's compared with 95% and 85% in this fairly small Xyotax study. Peter