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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (23548)	12/18/2004 10:56:24 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, what's your SWAG about when we will see the effects of this "withdrawal" on the stock market? I thought I would stay away from the short side for all but intraday scalps until after the first week in January. Not that your answer will change that, but do you think the market will have a hard time rallying over the next 3-4 weeks.

To: russwinter who wrote (23548)	12/18/2004 2:09:39 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, I do not buy it. The yield curve in the UK has already inverted and has flattened considerably in the US as you know. If there is a recession(and I think you and I agree one is coming soon)why shouldn't long term rates fall? If China wants to force the US into a recession now it can attempt to force up long term rates. I think Andy Xie is off base. Sent a bunch of stuff to Heinz for comments. I do accept that some FNM unwinding contributing to short term gyration in treasuries now, but if someone for any reason forces long term rates in the US sky high the crash in housing will be immediate. Contrary play of the year: Buy long term treasuries Mish