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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: flint who wrote (26157)	12/18/2004 2:30:37 PM
From: flint	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Tired of losing on your Homebuilder Hedges despite home prices falling? Here is a hedge... Caterpillar currently at $95.00. I predict the low dollar will get people talking into the new year and prop CAT up over $100... I'm betting on $108.00 Next comes... Fewer housing units. You people of all people know the land is being sold raw by the Homies right now. Highway construction budgets are empty. Per the labor department highworkers are now some of the hardest hit people. Caterpillar market is the roadwork - Dozers, Scrapers, Front Endloaders. The builders - which I believe commercial construction will be carrying the industry the next few years are, overshadow by Hitachi, and other competitors. The largest highway contractor - Kiewit. Year end is December. Last year sales were down 8 to 10% and profits were down 18 to 19%. I predict more bad news from this company. You want to bet on a slow down - This is it. A stock that has been hyped because of the weak dollar vs bash day in and out like the homebuilders. CAT is suppose to have 25% growth next year - NO WAY. This here is the bloated pig. The weak dollar can only do so much to help people choose which equipment manufacturer to buy from. If the people aren't buying. They aren’t buying from anyone. A similar circumstance was with the early stages of high oil during a recession. If the volume of oil was low. No matter what the price of the oil the manufacturers of the pumping equipment were not gonna win. These companies went through a whirled wind of hyper growth on high oil, collapse on low volume, now proper moderate growth. Caterpillar collapse is between 2 weeks and 2 months away. Flint