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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: neolib who wrote (154553)	12/21/2004 8:06:52 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 281500

"Bush and Rummy seem to be in for the long haul." It seems that way, doesnt it? A buddy of mine who is both a vietnam vet and a political scientist always tell me that although vietnam was a loss in military terms, it actually served the purpose of proving to both the soviets and the chinese that the US was not a paper tiger and was willing to support allies and incur large casualties. The post vietnam soul searching however is what created the opposite sense until Reagan became President. Steadfastness in iraq perhaps will teach the lesson to our enemies over there that the US will not leave there without a fight as well. Of course as in vietnam, getting out becomes the better policy, if staying in doesnt get us anywhere. I am in no way proposing a 10 year stay in Iraq. Post election iraq with sistani playing the biggest role albeit behind the scenes gives the iraqis a chance to create a unified state that can take on the insurgents with our aid in due time OR it at least gives 2 out of the three components of iraq a chance to survive as mostly independent states in some loose confederation until the sunnis can be welcomed back in. Keeping humpty dumpty together is not as important in my view as securing 80% of the population in states where the people have at least some say. Iran can help in securing the shiaa and we can continue our close relationship with the kurds. If there are three states, this will not be accpeted by the insurgents and border areas will need protecting. I made offhand mention yesterday of iranian presence in southern iraq. In reflecting further, we might get a syria/lebanon thing going between iran and shiaastan because the shiaa will need protection from the sunnis in the triangle, certainly until they can develop an armed force. Doesnt sound good but it may form the basis for a closer US/IRan relationship if we are tolerant of it. Our interests in the region are not as dissimilar as they seem on first blush. Mike