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Biotech / Medical : Cambridge Antibody Technology Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nigel bates who wrote (549)	12/21/2004 2:32:35 PM
From: goyster	Respond to of 625

I agree that the market hasn't fully valued this company. My personal rough valuation for CAT as of today - after taking the AZ deal into account (cash plus dilution), and assuming the Abbott trial result stands is as follows: Cash £175M = £3.50 per share Humira (in RA) £150M = £3.00 per share Humira (in other indications) £50M = £1.00 per share Internal pipeline £0M = £0.00 per share (it was worth less than zero before Trabio died) Licensed pipeline (excluding ABT-874 (J695) £5M = £0.10 per share ABT-874 £50M = £1.00 per share Phage/ribosome display technology value £15M = £0.30 per share This gives me a total approximate value today £445M = £8.90 per share I think the market has not yet valued ABT-874 properly. If ABT-874 is approved during the next three years I would expect it to add a further £2-3 per share in value. And if the company is managed properly it should be possible to add another £3-4 pounds per share in value during the next three years by development of future in-licensed products.