To: RealMuLan who wrote (19238 ) 12/21/2004 3:24:14 PM From: RealMuLan Respond to of 116555 China reforms to go full speed ahead in '05 BEIJING - The central economic work conference held toward the end of this year to fix major economic policies for the new year has defined 2005 as a year of reform, that is, the country will press full steam ahead with reforms in order to improve its international competitiveness and solve underlying problems. 2005 is of great significance in China's economic development. It is not only the last year of the 10th five-year plan period but also the run-up to the 11th five-year plan, the expiry of the three-year transitional period for China's access to the World Trade Organization and the first year to open the market to foreign capital. Chinese industries, state sector enterprises, agriculture and administrative departments that lead the reforms will all face major steps of reform in 2005. It has become imperative to push the reforms at all levels of economic activities. First of all, the price paid by China's economic growth is a big problem. Since 1999, China has always fixed the economic growth objective at about 7%. But the actual figure has always been higher than this and it has been achieved at the price of high energy consumption. Such sustained high growth has brought about mounting inflationary and environment pressures. Second, the three-year transition period for China's access to the WTO ends this year. By its commitments, China has to open some sensitive areas, such as finance, insurance, securities, wholesale, retail sales, construction, logistics and other major industries. The tariffs on agricultural products, motor vehicles, paper products, textiles and wines have been cut sharply and the tariffs on furniture and toys have been reduced to zero. All non-tariff barriers have to be removed. More than 90 sub-departments, including books, newspapers and other publications, drugs, chemical fertilizer, finished oil, crude oil, communications, telecommunications and tourism will also gradually open to foreign capital. Agricultural products will meet the challenges by foreign quality products at low prices; the financial industry has to coordinate steps of opening up with security; banks, securities and insurance industries have to cope with such problems as to how to improve management levels and shorten the gaps with developed countries; the retail sale industry has to come out with ideas of how to complete with advantageous foreign giants; the automotive industry that lacks its own technologies has to think of ways to create its core competitiveness; the country has to cope with increasing anti-dumping investigations and with the accusations concerning intellectual property rights protection. Third, a series of reforms centering around market opening will be carried out under the direction of the government. The management system will have to undergone further reforms in such areas as organizational set-up of administrative departments and thinking and methods for guiding enterprises. The Chinese government has already raised the problem of how to improve the capabilities of riding over the market economy and improve its governance. This means that compared with the economic, legal and administrative means employed in the macroeconomic control in 2004, macroeconomic policy will employ more market forces. The nearly 7-year activist fiscal policy will give way to a prudent fiscal measures and prudent monetary policy. This is a major shift in policy orientation. A significant signal is to contract the issue of treasury bonds. In the six years from 1998 to 2003, China issued 800 billion yuan (US$97 billion) of long-term construction bonds and between 1998-2002, each year witnessed an additional issue of treasury bonds, increasing from 100 billion to 150 billion yuan. Such activist fiscal policy pulled the economic growth by 1.5-2 percentage points every year. But the total size of treasury bonds issued has reached nearly 2,000 billion yuan, increasing the pressure on deficits. That has given rise to voices for phasing out the activist fiscal policy. China issued 150 billion yuan of treasury bonds in 2002, 140 billion in 2003 and 110 billion in 2004, showing a decreasing trend. Some experts pointed out that the 2005 issue of treasury bonds will be kept at about 80 billion yuan. The prudent fiscal and monetary policies would screen out a large amount of investment initiated by administrative departments so as to realize the effect of interest rate rise. Macroeconomic control will come down on institutional arrangements. China has experienced overheated development on three occasions since 1978. The control measures for the first two were quite strong, resulting in big falls. This year, the government hopes to adopt institutional arrangements instead of administrative means, with credit and land use as the breakthrough points. This has been revealed by the fact that China's land policy since the latter half of 2004 has become rarely so strong. "Recycling economy" will become key words in the economic development of 2005. Over the past year, the strong economic growth has been greatly strained the energy supply. This problem has to be resolved by the development of a recycling economy as put forward by the government in a bid to seek a sustainable development. It has been revealed that the recycling economy will be a guideline for compiling the 11th five-year plan. It is likely that the state will promulgate a recycling economy law. Despite the accelerated pace in institutional reform, it still lags behind economic reform. The overgrowth of fixed assets investment, too big a pressure on prices and strained energy supply, all reveal institutional drawbacks that has made the reforms in 2005 even more pressing. (Asia Pulse/XIC)atimes.com