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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Metcalf who wrote (14855)	12/21/2004 10:23:51 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Long term you might well be right. But short term there's going to be $4 billion (?) or so in cox-2 drugs that someone isn't going to be paying for. If you do the more sophisticated analysis you are suggesting, things do get more complicated. First there is going to be some number of people on Nexium + NSAID instead of Prilosec + NSAID. There's going to be increased hospitalizations for GI bleeds in any event for those that take their NSAIDs straight. Next, for those with RA, there is going to be greater temptation to be on disease modifying regimens which are either expensive (Enbrel etc.) or toxic (methotrexate). But for those with OA (which I'm guessing are probably the biggest cohort of cox-2 users) there's not really much alternative to NSAIDs. This really points to a desperate need for a non-narcotic pain treatment other than NSAIDs and cox-2s. DOVP's bicifadine maybe? Seems like MRK and PFE must surely be on the lookout for something to replace their cox-2 franchise. But the potential bicifadine patent life issues might be a deterrent for them. Peter