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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve168 who wrote (20299)	12/22/2004 12:31:34 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78536

re IBPI - used to follow them years ago before the split. The first drug (i think it was an antibiotic) was abandoned) under somewhat obscure circumstance. Now I see the 2nd one bit the dust as well. Looks like they will likely burn through their remaining dough pretty quick. As with all below cash plays, one has to look at the underlying business. Sometimes it is indeed worth less than zero. I believe that IBPI is such a case. I believe that OSCI and XNVA are at least close to cash and better plays, but of course i could be wrong.

To: Steve168 who wrote (20299)	12/22/2004 1:29:28 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78536

Guess I'd pass on IBPI at current price. Impossible for me to figure business prospects. OTOH, since I like to buy small amounts and a package of these things, understanding the company and its prospects isn't totally necessary for overall success. (I hope.) I have bought a couple of these biotechs like this before, and they've worked out okay. (Aside: and as time has passed, I seem to have learned more about their businesses, and have become somewhat more comfortable holding on to the shares even though they've moved up from below-cash plays.) IBPI is a bet that management won't fritter away remaining cash. I'd like even more of a margin of safety - maybe with current cash and a stock price closer to @2.50/sh. Man, how this company has fallen. Selling now under $4, market had evaluated its prospects very highly- and stock was over $400/sh - in wonder year 2000.

To: Steve168 who wrote (20299)	12/25/2004 1:26:28 PM
From: Steve168	Respond to of 78536

IBPI Update. After I dug up the 10-K and calculated their preferred shares and warrants, my estimate is they have about $5 in cash. The company has only 6 employees left and they are going to sell the company or liquidate. If any company is interested in any intangible asset, or take potential tax benefit of IBPI's $230M accumulated loss, they may offer several million dollars for everything. Every $10M will result $1/share above the cash value. The only risk is the lawsuit, which may not be a big problem according to this article. Those single drug development stage Biotechs are risky, every investors should know if they read the offering document. The catching point is there is only one month after IBPI's stock sale that they stopped the trail. Can they prove the material numbers only appeared in that month? or can the other side prove IBPI knew the data before the stock sale? I think a 25% gain on $4 in several months is worth the risk so I am in. thestreet.com