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To: TobagoJack who wrote (57439)	12/22/2004 11:36:36 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I think Mongolia is a goner I assume this means you think I should sell my BGO?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (57439)	12/22/2004 11:05:20 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, Well, China needs big energy resources. Drips from Myannmar and scraps from the S. China Sea won't satiate her demand. Rustling around in the Congo is going to take time, and those pesky Canadians have a layer of political correctness that will take time to pierce. China doesn't have the luxury of time. Then here comes Russia, a major oil exporter with such a bad infrastructure it leaks more oil in a year than many nations produce, and it leaks more than even more nations consume! Russia still transports oil by barge and when the rivers freeze up oil by barge ceases. Wow! (How do you hedge that risk? Weather futures?) Then, Russia ships by rail. For the amount of oil Russia has, pipeline is the only way to go, and the proximity of China to Russia's oilfields makes for a compelling case. China may still do the deal in the tar sands, but this deal, if it is China, will relegate that to the back seat. The problem will be the US shareholders who will claim title to those assets. They will seek redress through the US court system. If those assets are in China'a hands, oh yes TwoAPuc may come into play with much diplomatic manouevering between the two. Will China get a net benefit from this backdoor route to Russian oil? Will China threat to cash in Clownbuck Treasuries? Will Putin ever get down to the Crawford Ranch? What hand will Bush play? The next 4 years will be interesting. I hope we make it. D

To: TobagoJack who wrote (57439)	12/23/2004 3:06:37 AM
From: Taikun	Respond to of 74559

Jay, I posted this in July from the Russian news media on the future of YUKOS. This seems to have not been covered much in the West. I personally think Western firms investing in this Russian environment are crazy and I will not put any money into those deals-David Message 20365318 “This is the first step in forming a big energy holding, which will include Rosneft and Gazprom,” he told Kommersant. The idea that Rosneft will become an operational base to create Gosneft – a ghost company that has been a nightmare for the whole oil and energy complex since 1995 – was mentioned by most experts Kommersant interviewed yesterday. According to IFC Metropol analyst Evgenia Satskova, “with this appointment, the government demonstrated its intentions to increase control over the strategic industry.” Now this: Russia's Rosneft to Take Over Biggest Yukos Oil Unit (Update2) Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's state-owned OAO Rosneft said it will take over the main production unit of OAO Yukos Oil Co., the exporter of 11 percent of the nation's petroleum. Rosneft will pay an undisclosed sum for Baikal Finance Group, which won a $9.34 billion auction for OAO Yuganskneftegaz on Dec. 19, Rosneft spokesman Alexander Stepanenko said in a telephone interview today. The government seized and auctioned the unit, which pumps 1.1 million barrels a day of oil, to help recover more than $23 billion in back taxes from Yukos. The purchase by Rosneft tightens Russian President Vladimir Putin's grip on the oil industry in a nation that lags only Saudi Arabia in output. OAO Gazprom, the world's largest natural gas producer, plans to buy Rosneft. ``The purchase is part of Rosneft's plan to transform the company into a balanced national energy corporation by developing production in Siberia, the Russian Far East and European Russia,'' Stepanenko said. Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov declined to comment. Gazprom's board of directors is scheduled to meet today. Collectively, Gazprom, Rosneft and Yugansk pump 18 percent of Russia's 9.2 million barrels of daily crude oil output. Oil and gas make up one-fifth of Russia's economy and account for more than 50 percent of export revenue. Yearlong Battle The takeover of Yugansk caps a yearlong battle between Putin's government and Yukos that helped to push oil prices to record highs because of concern about possible cuts in supplies. The sale strips Yukos of 60 percent of its oil and leaves the company with about $10 billion of outstanding tax debt. Group Menatep, Yukos's controlling shareholder, on Dec. 13 said it will sue the buyer of Yugansk and those who trade in its oil and gas production. Rosneft produces 414,000 barrels a day of oil and its daily natural gas output is equivalent to 141,700 barrels a day of oil. Gazprom produces about 200,000 barrels a day of oil and its daily natural gas output is equivalent to 9.56 million barrels of oil. Rosneft's recoverable oil and gas condensate reserves rose 9 percent to 2.4 billion barrels in 2003. Gazprom's natural gas reserves total 18.5 trillion cubic meters (116.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent). Gazprom employs 330,000 staff. Rosneft employs more than 50,000 people. To contact the reporter on this story: Vladimir Todres in Moscow at vtodres@bloomberg.net and To contact the editor responsible for this story: Reinie Booysen at rbooysen@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: December 23, 2004 02:35 EST quote.bloomberg.com