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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (27162)	12/28/2004 12:51:56 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

"Our positive stance is based on our belief that newcomers are achieving little success in ramping production, and that the majority of the new capacity from incumbents won't be up and running until late 2005 at the earliest." I believe this is a very valid point; one of the reasons why DRAM was strong in 2004 (+50% and change) has been nagging issues with yields and ramping. It's my understanding that boxmakers are somewhat reluctant to convert over to DDR2 because DRAM makers can not provide a sufficient supply (at least in view of boxmakers). Though memory is considered a commodity the supply equation appears to be changing because not only the number of transistors doubles every 18 months or so BUT also the technicals problems for chipmakers double every 18 months and the spread between first and second tier will probably widen and consequently not all capacity - even purchased at same time - will come up at the same time; "easy" ramps will be a thing from the past (IMHO) even Samsung had temporary issues with regards to DRAM this year