To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (8510 ) 12/28/2004 8:02:46 AM From: axial Read Replies (2) | Respond to Hi Frank -al Jazeera notwithstanding."There's probably no other way to address fifty years out in a realistic fashion, due to the mutual dependence and the lag-lead relationships of yet unknown technological breakthroughs to those of today, or how we will ultimately be harnessing energy in the year 2054." "Lag-lead relationships" ... IMO this area defines one of the greatest concerns, and here's why: if you look back at the scope of new generation required, and when it will be needed, we see a confluence of events:A - The search for fossil-fuel sources will become increasingly expensive, in terms of incremental energy costs (sources may be rejected because they're a net "energy sink") - and capital. Back to capital in a minute.B - The lead time required to bring either fuel sources or generation capacity online - especially nuclear power generation as we have known it - ie., megaprojects.C - Reliance on foreign oil sources: every megawatt we produce today reduces our reliance on others, and promotes our future ability to transcend. Now is the time to build, cost-effectively. D - Finally, capital. Mid-century scenarios indicate the possible and synergistic confluence of many trends: global warming, need for power, population growth, and the "cost of doing business" as defined by the cost of energy. If you re-read the projected generation needs, ask yourself how much money will that take. Where will that money come from? I suggest global capital demands at that time will be huge, and many who arrive unprepared will have no recourse but public funding."One can easily see how the same general areas of considerations that were discussed in this article, albeit covering a different subject matter, are overlooked by the average well-to-do westerner standing on line at the supermarket, or how a manufacturer might overlook how its processes impact energy requirements in a more global setting than the shelf space occupied in a Wal-Mart outlet or an auto dealership, even when the manufacturer has gone to great lengths to assure that its own manufacturing-related power consumption is kept to a bare minimum. Manufacturers are likely to do cost-benefit and tradeoff analyses on power related issues a lot sooner than a consumer might, or ever will, for many cuts of product.
