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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (21878)	12/27/2004 1:31:24 PM
From: Tim Bagwell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

if a holder of Portfolio One had bought QQQ (now QQQQ) at the highest end of the recommended range (i.e., 50% of cash reserves) then from 9/30/2000 to 11/30/2004 they would have been up about 2.6%. I'll take your word on the calculation but it's only one way to look at the effect of the Bobbled QQQQ trade. Actually, it's one of the more positive ways to minimize the impact felt by that awful trade he made. A more realistic evaluation has to figure in an opportunity cost also. If you lose money on a high-risk trade, the impact of that loss is increased by what the money could have earned if, instead, it had been put it into the broad market, like SPY. That is the true metric here and it underscores how utterly disastrous it was when Bobble abandoned the QQQQ trade. The impact of the loss is enormous and shouldn't be minimized by simply covering it from the winning side of the portfolio. The real tragedy of the Bobbled QQQQ trade was that Bobble could have exited almost at any point when QQQQ was in free-fall and he would have looked better than he does today. All he had to do was act. He did not. His abandonment of the trade meant that he was so confused or overwhelmed that all he could do was give up. He simply froze. That's the worst thing that anyone can do in a trading situation and Bobble showed us all that he is no better than the worst kind of rank trader. So the real legacy of that QQQQ trade was that Bob Brinker abandoned an open trade because he was inexperienced. His legacy is also that he abandoned the people who placed their trust in him and paid fees to him for diligent advice which he was not trained to give. If he had any moral or ethical fiber in his being he would have given back subscription fees to all those impacted by his terrible Bulletin #1. Today, Bob Brinker (Bobble) lives a lie by his ongoing efforts to hide his failures. Let the real record show that he still has an open QQQQ trade that he refuses to acknowledge and it continues to rack-up huge losses.