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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SOROS who wrote (69453)12/24/2004 6:01:28 PM
From: Crimson Ghost  Respond to of 89467
 
Excellent post Soros!



To: SOROS who wrote (69453)12/24/2004 6:28:20 PM
From: SiouxPal  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
Happy New Year SOROS!!

SiouxPal



To: SOROS who wrote (69453)12/24/2004 8:45:43 PM
From: fresc  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 89467
 
Soro, You make me laugh!
SKY is FALLING!

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Bush said Monday he will submit a federal budget that will half the deficit in five years and maintain strict spending discipline.

"We will provide every tool and resource for our military, we will protect the homeland," Bush said. He said he would "maintain strict discipline in spending tax dollars."

In the 17th news conference of his presidency, Bush was pushing his second-term agenda.

Bush said he will submit a federal budget that will cut the deficit in half in five years and maintain strict spending discipline. His fiscal 2006 budget is due to Congress in February.

"We will submit a budget that fits the times. It will provide every tool and resource to the military, will protect the homeland, and meet other priorities of the government," he said.

With a growing number of lawmakers, including Republicans, voicing no confidence in Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, Bush defended his Pentagon chief.

"Beneath that rough and gruff no-nonsense demeanor is a good human being who cares deeply about the military and the grief that war causes," Bush said, batting away criticism that Rumsfeld had not personally signed condolence letters to the families of troops who have died



To: SOROS who wrote (69453)12/24/2004 8:54:13 PM
From: fresc  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 89467
 
Name calling? You should practice what you preach!
Its the begining of a BEAR market! Run and Hide! Maybe France?

more bad news?

November report for headline job creation may not have been quite as strong as expected, but the fine print inside the government release still carried plenty of good economic news — which is not so uncommon these days. Indeed, with each new piece of rising economic data, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: This booming economy is voting for Bush.

While it's true that big corporations are still cautious about new job hires, the fact remains that more and more people are entering the workforce. Employment as measured by the Labor Department's household survey counted 589,000 newly employed workers in November, following October's robust rise of 441,000. This measure has increased in three of the last four months by a total 1.1 million. It's why the unemployment rate has dropped to 5.9 percent from its 6.4 percent peak.

In fact, the household survey now shows that 757,000 more people are working today than in January 2001. The media may rant about big job losses during the Bush presidency, but the much different reality is that three quarters of a million more people have gone to work during the president's first three years — which included a recession he inherited from the prior administration.

Part of this misinformation problem may be that the job-watchers in the media are not tracking all of the jobs. In the innovative 21st century information economy, it's the ranks of the self-employed that are surging. In November, for example, 156,000 new self-employed workers showed up. This sector has gained in five of the last six months by a total of 517,000, strongly implying that the labor market is healthier than the headlines suggest. When you add the number of new self-employed workers to the new payrolls in the corporate workforce, you get a total of 213,000 new jobs in the economy for the month of November.

Not only is this more proof that the "jobless" recovery is in good part myth, but it represents a cultural change inside the economy. Self-employed entrepreneurs are replacing the old-line corporate establishment. This is a transformation of America's jobs profile, and its being enabled by President Bush's significant tax cuts on small businesses and their investments.

As for the Labor Department's business-establishment survey — which tracks old-line corporations and doesn't properly identify the new economic culture — non-farm payrolls increased by 57,000 in November. That's not all that bad. It's the fourth consecutive rise for non-farm payrolls, bringing the total jobs-gain since July to 328,000. Meanwhile, hours worked and overtime also increased last month.

Importantly, temporary-worker payrolls have increased for seven straight months by a total of 166,000. This traditional leading indicator projects nearly 100,000 new private jobs in December and at least 750,000 in the first quarter of next year.

For some reason, the dollar fell on this good employment news. But not even an incredibly strong report on factory orders (non-defense capital-goods orders jumped 34 percent at an annual rate over the past three months) could halt the dollar's falling momentum. Nor could the president's decision to end steel tariffs (although this was a strong pro-growth move on its own merits). Nor could the incredibly positive reports on productivity, profits, and manufacturing.

But the undervalued dollar is really Europe's problem, not ours. If they wish to sink their economy with an overvalued and deflationary euro, let them.

Of course, the Federal Reserve could help stabilize the dollar by changing its policy position on the overnight interest rate, which it intends to keep low "for a considerable period." The Treasury Department could also send a strong dollar signal with a well-timed exchange-market intervention. But still, when you step back a bit, it becomes clear that there is no real dollar crisis.

In the last four years, a broad dollar index of 30 currencies around the world swung up by roughly 10 percent and then back down by the same amount, leaving the dollar essentially unchanged in that period. And recent increases in gold and commodity prices have more to do with the stockpiling of raw materials, finished goods, and precious metals from the China boom than any excess money from Greenspan & Co.

The Fed is doing its job by properly accommodating President Bush's supply-side tax cuts on capital formation, which will continue to grow the economy near the 5 percent average rate of the past two quarters. Outsized productivity gains, stronger-than-expected profits, surging investment in capital goods, and accelerated job creation will all result from higher after-tax capital returns and lower capital costs.

All of which seems very unfair to the Democrats: With each new piece of positive economic data, a second Bush term becomes more and more of a foregone conclusion.



To: SOROS who wrote (69453)12/24/2004 9:18:17 PM
From: fresc  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 89467
 
There you go Soro. More bad news for ya!
Time to go enjoy Christmas.
As all you whiners sit and enjoy the holidays, you should be really grateful for the country you live in. Look at history! the U.S is the most tolerent world power ever. We are all very lucky to be on this side of the world. Its not perfect, but nothing is.

A Canadian perspective
Cheers to all, even to the Soro's and the Geo's of the world :)

Daily Technical Outlook

Ralph Acampora
Managing Director, Global Equity Research
12/6/2004 11:18:24 AM

This outlook is based on Ralph Acampora's technical analysis and constitutes opinions which are subject to change. Contact a financial professional with any questions you may have. Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results and there is no assurance that his forecasts will be attained.

Last Friday The Market Was Mixed—This Is Part Of The Up Trend That Commenced For Most Indexes In August. This Upward Bias Is The Second Leg Of Our Cyclical Bull Market Which We Believe Will Carry Into The New Year.
Monday’s Commentary

HIGHLIGHTS

The advance/decline lines are still in their upward biases—they represent one of the main reasons we are bullish for the New Year. We see any hesitation as a buying opportunity.
The bond market rallied briskly last Friday taking the yield on the 10-Year Treasuries back to the 4.2% level. We believe that this reaction is part of the bottoming action in interest rates. Over time we expect rates to work their way higher.
The US dollar remains in a dramatic down trend. The next area of support is at the 79/80 level—this represents the dollar’s 1991, 1992 and 1995 lows.
Gold is consolidating at current levels. This is constructive in our view. We still have a target of $468.
A classic head and shoulder top pattern was confirmed when crude fell below the $46 level. We have a near-term target to the $41/$42 area and an intermediate term objective of $34/$35.
DISCUSSION
The following technical commentary is meant to provide a brief short-term overview of the market as measured by the major averages. This note will also include technical commentary that relates to those companies that were included in the Prudential Equity Group, LLC morning institutional fundamental research call that we believe are timely on a technical basis.

Our Fearless Forecast For 2005 calls for the continuation of the cyclical bull market that commenced in October 2002. So far the Value Line Composite is up 112% underscoring the broadness of the advance to date. We used the “measured move” concept in technical analysis to generate the upside targets for the leading averages:

Index Potential Upside Target For 2005
Dow Jones Industrial 13264.54
S&P 500 473.53
NASDAQ Composite 2796.16
Russell 2000 797.42
Source: Prudential Equity Group, LLC

Technical Indicators We Believe Support This Cyclical Bull Market:

The Lowry Report of supply and demand.
The point and figure bullish percent calculations.
The weekly MACD of the S&P 500.
The Decennial Cycle.
Two Inter Market Factors We Believe Support This Cyclical Bull Market:

The anticipated weakness in future crude prices.
A slow rise in the yield of the 10-Year Treasuries.
Style Strategy:

Growth is expected to continue to outperform value.
Small and mid cap stocks are expected to continue to outperform large cap early in 2005.
Why We Are Publishing Our Forecast Earlier Than Usual?

This cyclical bull is already 26 months old. The longest cyclical bull we witnessed was 31 months. So time is of the essence in our view.
The second leg of our measured move is already 3 ½ months old and these moves are usually very quick. Hence, we wanted to get our message out as quickly as possible.
Primary & Secondary Parameters-For The Major Large-Cap Equity Averages

Dow Jones Industrial Average Primary Support = 10,417.08 intra-day low (11/29/04)
Secondary Support = 9,708.40 intra-day low (10/25/03)
Primary Resistance = 10,753.63 intra-day low (2/19/04)

Standard & Poor's 500 Primary Support = 1,090.19 intra-day low (10/25/04)
Secondary Support= 1,062.23 (8/06/04)
Primary Resistance = 1250/1260 Area(May, 2001)

NASDAQ Composite
Primary Support = 1,899.33 intra-day low (10/15/04)
Secondary Support = 1,750.82 intra-day low (8/13/03)
Primary Resistance = 2,153.83 intra-day high (1/26/04)

Russell 2000 Primary Support = 558.36 intra-day low (9/28/04)
Secondary Support = 541.96 intra-day peak (8/31/04)
Primary Resistance = N/A

Source: Prudential Equity Group,LLC



To: SOROS who wrote (69453)12/24/2004 11:40:11 PM
From: Sawdusty  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 89467
 
I really respect your post Soros, but it would have more impact, had you not voted for, therefore supported, the very policies you criticize now.

You can't have it both ways fella, live with it.

That said, Merry Christmas to you.



To: SOROS who wrote (69453)12/25/2004 10:07:43 AM
From: longnshort  Respond to of 89467
 
I heard the same song and dance when Reagan was pres. The low dollar then had the Japs buying all of our real estate and you libs were crying it's the end of the world. Turns out the Japs lost BILLIONS when they had to sell back to Americans.
Remember all the up roar about the homeless then? Then Clinton gets in and you never hear another word about them. Go pull the wool over someone elses eyes



To: SOROS who wrote (69453)12/25/2004 4:35:26 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
Soros,

Re: The US needs something like 2 BILLION dollars EVERY day, and China is probably the largest buyer.

No, Japan is the largest purchaser of U.S. treasury debt, by far.

Japan holds about 3 times as much debt as does China, and while China's purchases of T-bills and T-bonds have been essentially flat for a couple of years, Japan has been rapidly accelerating its purchases of U.S. sovereign debt.

As of August, 2004, Japan held $722 of the U.S. National Debt, by far the largest creditor to the U.S. China (#2 creditor nation) held $172 Billion.

Source: budget.senate.gov

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