SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (19510)12/24/2004 6:28:41 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
The Specter of Deflation
by John Calverley
lewrockwell.com

U.S. house prices rose 13% in the year to Q3, including an astonishing 42% leap in Nevada, 27% in California and 23% in Washington DC. Prices have risen a long way on the coasts over the last 7 years with gains of 134% in California, 103% in Massachusetts and 92% in New Jersey and 89% in New York. Inland regions have generally been more stable so the nationwide average gains since 1997 is a more moderate 65%. Nevertheless, with house price inflation accelerating, it looks as though the United States is in the early-to-middle stages of a bubble. In the U.K. and Australia more advanced bubbles are key factors in economic performance and monetary policy. The United States is likely to go the same way.

One of the causes of the bubble is that people seem to have forgotten that house prices can fall as well as rise. And the risks of a significant fall are more acute now than for over 50 years because of the low rate of inflation in consumer prices and the threat of deflation. Between the 1950s and the mid-1990s falling consumer prices, deflation, was virtually unknown anywhere. The world’s attention was focused entirely on battling rising prices, inflation, which had become the number one economic problem. But by the late 1990s the battle against inflation was won and deflation had emerged in several countries in Asia including Japan.

Deflation is a new and troubling threat for all of us, brought up in an era of continuous inflation. Almost nobody alive today, even the venerable Mr. Greenspan, was an active market participant or policy-maker in the 1930s, the last time the United States suffered deflation. Yet, during the 19th century and right up to the 1930s, deflation was common, indeed even normal, while inflation was usually only seen at the height of economic booms and in wartime.

In the U.S., deflation is still only a hypothetical possibility, but in Japan it is a painful reality. Japan’s stock and property bubbles deflated rapidly in the early 1990s and a series of short-lived upswings were each soon ended by a new downturn. In this weak environment, inflation gradually dropped to zero and then deflation set in, starting in 1995. As of the end of 2004 Japan’s price level has fallen a cumulative 10%.

A world of very low inflation, and potentially deflation, makes the current house price bubbles more dangerous than in the past and, from an investor and homeowner point of view, means that houses are a more risky investment. After past price bubbles, house price adjustments were limited in nominal terms by the cushion of high underlying inflation. Indeed in the United States, the nationwide price index has never fallen in nominal terms. In fact, there was a 10% adjustment in real prices in the 1990s, but it was hidden by the high consumer price inflation of the time. In some regions, the real price adjustment was greater and so nominal prices fell too. For example, Californian home prices fell 10% in nominal terms in the early 1990s, with a 24% decline in real terms.

How much effect would a fall in house prices have on the economy? The bursting of the 1990s stock market bubble wiped about $5 trillion off U.S. household wealth. It would take a 33% fall in home prices to have the same impact. A decline of this magnitude cannot be ruled out if valuation ratios for housing, such as the house price-earnings ratio or the house price-rents ratio returned to past cyclical lows, but it would only be likely in the context of a serious recession and a new rise in unemployment. However, wealth effects from declining house prices are usually found to be more virulent than those from falling stock markets, so a fall of "only" 10–20% in house prices could present Mr. Greenspan, or his successor, with a similar headache to the aftermath of the stock crash.

But a housing crash would have other effects too. In past housing downturns residential investment fell sharply, by 40% in 1980–82 and by 24% in 1988–91. This is reflected in the monthly housing starts data, which typically halve during recessions. But starts only ticked down briefly during the 2001 recession and have since risen close to past peaks. Residential investment accounts for about 5% of GDP, so a severe house-building recession would be enough to cut GDP by 1–2% on its own.

How likely is a U.S. housing bust? The economy enters 2005 with considerable momentum and with interest rates still low so it seems likely that house prices will continue to rise for a while, inflating the bubble further. Good news on the economic front will support house prices while rising mortgage rates (likely as bond yields move up) will threaten them. The outcome of these opposing forces will depend partly on how much mortgage rates do in fact rise. Continued good news on consumer price inflation would keep bond yields low and make higher home prices more likely. But house prices will also depend on whether the growing signs of a bubble mentality, now evident in some regions, extend further. When a bubble reaches the euphoric phase, rising interest rates may have little effect because people are entirely focused on the prospect of quick gains.

The ideal outcome from here would be a period where house prices were broadly stable, allowing earnings and rents to catch up and valuations to moderate. A small fall in the market of 5–10% would help that process along, without causing too much hardship, though a nationwide 5–10% fall would almost certainly imply falls of 10–20% in parts of California and New England and other particularly high-priced areas. The most dangerous scenario is if house valuations are still extended when the next major shock hits the U.S. economy. Stock prices would likely be falling too, so that the economy would face a double dose of asset prices effects adding up to a much more lethal mixture than in the aftermath of the stock market bust.

A large correction of house prices at some point, 20% for example, would be a painful process for homeowners as well as investors in housing. Moreover prices would likely only recover gradually since inflation and incomes growth would likely be very low at that point. Hence it is probable that prices would not return to their peak levels for 15 years or more. This might not worry some owner-occupiers. Many will have bought before the peak of the bubble so that, while they will see some erosion of their equity and perhaps suffer some disappointment, they may not be losing much, except on paper. Moreover, since mortgage rates would likely fall, people would be able to refinance at lower rates.

However, people relying on future appreciation to help fund their retirement could be very disappointed. Moreover some people would find the value of their house falling below the outstanding on their mortgage, i.e. negative equity, because of the greater decline in nominal house prices.

For an investor in housing the scenario above would, to say the least, be a huge disappointment, because there is no capital gain for more than 15 years. Of course, provided he could find tenants and provided rents did not fall, his net rental yield should be positive so there would be some income after costs, though not much given the low level of rental yields, especially in the more bubbly areas. It is difficult to define exactly where the investor would end up, because a great deal depends on how big a loan he has and what rent he could obtain. But there is no doubt that this is what disappointed investors call "a very long-term investment," or in other words a mistake! The choice is either sell and accept the loss or wait it out, but then miss the opportunity to make money elsewhere.

A big adjustment like this is most likely when we see a sharp slowdown or recession and especially if house prices continue to rise rapidly in 2005, as seems likely unless mortgage rates rise very rapidly. The United States avoided a major recession in 2001, with the help of massive fiscal stimulus and rapid cuts in interest rates. But another downturn will come one day and, if house building and consumer spending crash too, the recession will be more severe than in 2001. In a low inflation world, housing bubbles are a much more dangerous phenomenon.

December 23, 2004

John P. Calverley [send him mail] is Chief Economist and Strategist at American Express Bank in London. He is also the author of Bubbles and How to Survive Them. This article first appeared in Bill Bonner's Daily Reckoning.



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (19510)12/24/2004 6:30:55 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Detroit faces massive layoffs in 2005

metrotimes.com

With the City of Detroit facing a financial crisis of staggering proportions, Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is preparing for massive layoffs in the new year to plug a deficit that could surpass $360 million in the next six months.

But it might not take six months for the ax to swing.

If the City Council fails to pass a crucial bond measure when it returns from holiday break, the city would have to lay off as many as 2,000 workers, according to Detroit Auditor General Joe Harris.

And the bond issue is only one of the financial problems facing the city.

The mayor and his financial staff have warned of the need to reduce the workforce for more than a year, and things are only getting worse. Population losses and the economic downturn have aggravated ever-declining tax revenues, and health care costs continue to skyrocket, creating an acute situation.

The mayor has repeatedly promised not to cut police, fire and EMS workers. That leaves a pool of about 7,600 employees who could see their ranks cut by more than 25 percent. Cutting 2,000 of these water and sewerage, lighting, and building and engineering workers will have a devastating impact on city services.

“We’re heading toward a real crisis,” says City Councilwoman Sheila Cockrel. “I don’t think it’s ever been this bad, and I don’t think people have any idea how serious the situation is.”

Chief auditor Harris says layoffs are unavoidable. “We averted layoffs this year and last year by borrowing money,” Harris says, “and we’ve backed ourselves into a corner.”

City Finance Director Sean Werdlow is neither confirming nor denying projected layoff figures produced by City Council’s Fiscal Analysis Division, saying only that the city is preparing for all options, including early outs. But in a deficit reduction plan submitted to the state of Michigan last summer, Werdlow’s department said it would balance the budget by cutting up to 2,000 employees in 2005.

And that figure did not include jobs that may need to be eliminated if the City Council doesn’t agree to sell bonds related to the city’s pension system.

“We’ve said all along that we must reduce the size of our workforce,” Werdlow says. The city must “rightsize” the number of employees to meet its reduced population, he says. During the 1990s, Mayor Dennis Archer increased the workforce. From 1994 to 2002, the number of city employees — including police, fire and EMS officers — increased from 17,797 to 20,990, says mayoral spokesman Howard Hughey. Kilpatrick has cut the size of the force to 18,705.

Before any additional paychecks stop, the city must give union officials a 30-day notice. Union leaders say they’ve not been notified of layoffs but are expecting them.

“We’ll challenge any layoffs to protect our membership,” says Jimmy Hearns, lead negotiator for American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Local 207, which represents 5,500 Detroit employees.

With such dire possibilities in the offing, City Council President Maryann Mahaffey and councilmembers Kenneth Cockrel, Barbara- Rose Collins, Sharon McPhail and JoAnn Watson submitted a formal request to Kilpatrick on Friday for a special meeting to discuss the city’s “grave fiscal position.”

Mahaffey, who has long opposed layoffs, says the council has been asking the mayor for a deficit reduction plan for months. She says he should look at cutting spending before considering firing workers.

“I think the question is what do we do, how do we handle this to avert layoffs and to keep the city financially sound,” Mahaffey says.

The numbers

The city’s cash supplies — its so-called “rainy day” fund — started running dry in 2000, despite six straight years of budget surpluses. Most governments keep such an account, and Detroit’s was as fat as $76 million in 1989. But in 2002, the account was emptied and the city was left with $69 million in unpaid expenses.

Last year the city sold $65 million in bonds to pay off the overdue bills. Government agencies commonly sell bonds to Wall Street investors to pay for major projects and debts. The investors give the government cash, and in return expect payments with interest over a period of time, usually 15 or 30 years.

This year, the city passed a balanced budget in June, but early estimates show at least a $30 million deficit, fueled by lower-than-expected tax revenues, according to City Council Fiscal Analyst Irvin Corley. And in the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2005, the city is looking at a $214 million deficit, a hole it will have to fill to balance the budget.

Corley, in a recent report to City Council, explains that several factors play into the continuing budget gap, including:

• A $9.2 million cost overrun in the Police Department budget, which Corley says may arise because of the cost of overtime payments in 2004 to keep officers on 12-hour shifts due to understaffing.

• A $22.8 million reduction in revenue sharing by the state.

• A $21 million drop in income tax collection last year.

In addition, the city finance department reported to the state that property tax collections declined by $21 million in 2002-03. And in the last two years, pension plan costs grew by $97 million, now comprising 11 percent of the city budget.

“We’re going to hell in a handbasket,” says Auditor General Harris, who’s warned City Council for years that layoffs were needed because of Detroit’s shrinking income sources and increasing benefit costs.

Harris criticizes the mayor for negotiating a 2 percent to 5 percent pay raise for city workers in this climate. The raise went into effect in 2003 and is costing the city $26 million this year.

“Wall Street is watching Detroit and waiting for the other shoe to drop,” he says. “We’re there.”

Harris is also critical of councilmembers who’ve opposed layoffs.

“I don’t blame council,” he says. “But you’ve got some councilmembers that believe the city has the responsibility to continue to employ workers even when it can’t afford to.”

In June, Mayor Kilpatrick proposed cutting more than 300 city workers as part of his executive city budget, but the council fought the move. A handful of employees were laid off under the final budget, but many were called back to work, says Councilwoman Cockrel, who’s facing a recall effort she says came because she backed the mayor’s proposed layoffs.

Twice during the Young administration the council sued to prevent layoffs, but lost; the state Supreme Court has been clear that it’s the mayor’s prerogative to cut workers when there’s a financial need to do so.

January: D-Day

The city faces a major vote in January that could prompt an immediate layoff of as many as 2,000 workers and create an additional $112 million hole in the city’s budget, already gushing red ink. The City Council will decide whether to sell $1.2 billion in bonds to pay off the city’s pension account debt.

The bond sale would generate $112 million for the city this year — money needed to pay a looming bill owed to the pension account. Income from the sale was included in this year’s budget adopted in June, and is necessary for the city to balance this year’s accounts.

In normal circumstances, the city makes payments to its pension account every year — this year the city owes $112 million. But because the city doesn’t have $112 million to pay off the pension debt this year, it hopes, essentially, to borrow money from Wall Street to pay off the entire $1.2 billion.

The bond sale would allow the city to reduce interest payments on the $1.2 billion debt from 7.8 percent to 5.8 percent for a total savings of $277 million over the 15 years, says Werdlow, the mayor’s finance director.

The administration’s plan is to take 40 percent of the savings — the $112 million — this year.

If the council votes down the measure — as it did in November — there will be immediate layoffs and cuts in city services, the administration says in its bond proposal.

The only alternative to layoffs, should the bond measure fail, is for the city to sell another type of bond, a move that would have to be approved by the state. Such a move would hurt the city’s financial standing and might not be approved anyway, according to the city’s bond documents.

Last month, City Council turned down the bond sale by a 4-4 vote. A daily newspaper reported that councilmember Kay Everett missed a medical treatment related to her kidney disease to cast her vote. It was her last council meeting; she died nine days later. Councilmember Lonnie Bates, who was expected to vote in favor of the sale, missed the vote, telling a newspaper reporter he “got mixed up” about the time of the meeting.

This time around, without Everett in the picture, the administration will have to win a vote from the opposing group — McPhail, Mahaffey, Watson and Collins — who usually vote in a bloc.

Mahaffey says she voted against the measure because the administration was “five months late” in providing information about the deal. Instead, the administration pressured council to adopt the measure in a matter of days before the body went on its winter recess.

“We are not here to rubber stamp the mayor’s proposals,” Mahaffey says.

Meanwhile, only one of the city’s two retirement boards backs the proposed bond sale. The General Retirement Systems voted in favor of the deal, saying it wanted to prevent layoffs, while the Policemen and Firemen Retirement System voted against it, but is reconsidering. While the boards have no say in the matter, insiders say they carry great weight with councilmembers.

Councilmember Sharon McPhail, who last week announced her candidacy for mayor, sits on the police and fire pension board. She says she won’t vote for the measure as it’s written, even if not adopting it creates a $112 million deficit for the city.

“They’re going to lay off people anyway,” McPhail says of the administration. She was present during a presentation by the finance department and the city’s bond counsel last week to the police and fire pension board. She says she was not swayed. The people giving the presentation either work for the city or will be paid if the bond issue gets adopted; therefore, their opinions are suspect, she says.

“I’m not going to listen to those people’s advice. They’re good people, but this is their business. We have to look long-term at whether this is a good thing to do, and I don’t think it is,” McPhail says.

She says other cities, such as Philadelphia, have had problems with pension bonds. If the stock market tanks, the city will be obligated to pay off the Wall Street pension bond holders in addition to making payments to its pension account to make up for stock losses — creating a double payment situation. Such a situation would occur if the pension’s stock market holdings earned less than 5.8 percent in a year.

Harris, considered a neutral party, has a different take. He says the pension bonds are a no-brainer.

“It’s almost ludicrous for this to be denied,” Harris says. “There’s almost no risk.”

McPhail and Mahaffey say they want to see cost-saving measures implemented by the mayor, who they blame for wasting money. The administration, on the other hand, claims it has reduced spending by every department, including the mayor’s office. The council was the only department that increased its budget.

Still, selling a $1.2 billion bond is not a safe option, McPhail says: “There’s so much doublespeak, so much misinformation. It’s not a responsible way to manage the city’s finances. If they’d stop spending money, they wouldn’t have to lay off as many people.”

Mahaffey says Detroit is not alone in its predicament.

“Detroit is in financial trouble like every city in the state,” she says. “Detroit is not as bad off as Melvindale, which is laying off five of its 15 police officers. We are not as bad off as Highland Park.”

In such a climate, one must hope for miracles, big and small.



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (19510)12/25/2004 10:29:18 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
cable box issues
washingtonpost.com

"[T]he nondescript cable box is the object of a lot of frenzied lobbying over at the Federal Communication Commission these days, with consequences for your pocketbook and how you watch television.

Speculation is that if the cable guys lose this round, it will be a key part of their agenda when Congress moves to revise the 1996 Telecommunications Act governing cable and telephone service, which is where a lot of this got started."




To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (19510)12/25/2004 10:47:19 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Bless us, has Christmas past caught up again?
Guy Monson is chief investment officer of Sarasin Chiswell
money.telegraph.co.uk

While the England of Charles Dickens may seem gloriously irrelevant to Christmas or January sales shoppers, it is surprising to see how much of the economic landscape is in fact rather similar.

A Christmas Carol was written in 1843 and at that time Britain was seeing extraordinary new technologies emerge, many of them in communications, which transformed productivity and business practice. In 1842, for example, the first steam mail ship sailed to India. A year later the first public telephone line was completed, while a year after that Samuel Morse transmitted his first message from Baltimore to Washington.

At the same time a surge in 'free trade' was leading to a sharp rise in imports from the emerging economies of the day: America, India and Australia.

The parallels today are clear as we see the impact of technology and the internet economy on jobs and growth. At the same time there is the surge in productive capacity in today's emerging world of India, China and Eastern Europe. In 2004 14 emerging economies experienced annualised GDP growth of more than than 5pc.

The framework for a modern industrialised economy was falling into place with the passing in 1844 of the Companies Act, the Bank Charter Act and the Railways Act. Meanwhile Britain's industrial strength and innovation were displayed for all to see at the Great Exhibition of 1851 at Crystal Palace.

Bank of England base rates in 1843 were less than 1pc below where they stand today, while inflation in the decade following publication was about 1.3pc annualised, hardly different from today's CPI rate of just 1.5pc.

Despite the UK being the richest country on the globe in the mid-19th century, poverty was still acute. A Christmas Carol describes this vividly with its portrayal of the impoverished Bob Cratchit and his family, the clerk in Ebenezer Scrooge's counting house.

Much of that poverty came through debt, a theme that runs throughout Dickens' work and one of which he had first-hand experience. His father, a clerk at the Navy pay office in Portsmouth got into deep financial trouble and finally ended up in Marshalsea Prison. He was only released when a relation died and left him enough money to pay off his debts.

For many people, these debt-related problems were exacerbated by the drop in inflation as the impact of the Napoleonic Wars and increased free trade started to flow through into domestic agricultural prices. This in turn encouraged a decline in real incomes.

This is not unusual. Typically the winners in an inflationary world are the borrowers who see the value of their debt shrink in real terms and their incomes rise in nominal terms. But in a deflationary or low inflation world, the winners are more likely to be the Ebenezer Scrooges who hoard savings and fixed interest bonds.

Any of this sound familiar today? According to the recent Bank of England Financial Stability Review, the debt-to-income ratio in the UK is running at about 140pc and for homebuyers the ratio is even higher. This leaves the average UK consumer among the most highly indebted in the industrialised world. Much of the debt is secured on housing which after years of double-digit increases is beginning to look less secure.

While the absolute level of debt is at record levels the cost of servicing it is lower than for many years. While this may have increased 'affordability' and encouraged households to buy homes, it has also meant that these debts stay around for much longer, and it seems that the strain is beginning to tell.

Personal insolvency cases have been rising steadily over the past three years at the same time as households reporting mortgage payment problems has started to climb.

So, perhaps, this year the Ghost of Christmas Present will be paying a visit to Threadneedle Street to ask Mervyn King why he has been raising interest rates amid this mountain of debt, when inflation has been consistently below his targets.

At the same time the Ghost of Christmas yet to Come should probably drop by 11 Downing Street and remind the Chancellor that in 1844 a typical senior clerk like Bob Cratchit paid a net tax rate of less than 5pc of income.

Guy Monson is chief investment officer of Sarasin Chiswell
6 November 2004: Personal bankruptcies running at record high