Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (14942)	12/26/2004 5:58:53 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 52153

re. flu, 2004...... fluwatch.com Looks like MA may screw up what's been a good year.

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (14942)	12/26/2004 6:42:09 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Actually, influenza and all viruses evolve via recombination. Influenza does it more quickly than most viruses because there is quite a bit of variety and many dual infections. Science is still lagging in this area. Current dogma discusses shifts and drifts due to a polymerase without a proof reading function causing drifts via new mutations (leading to annual flu shots) and reassortment causing shifts (leading to pandemics). Although mutations and reassortment happens, new genes are created annually via recombination. It is the true driver of rapid evolution and emergence and the failure to recognize this simple underlying concept is why vaccine manufacturers are chasing the virus instead of making vaccines to viruses before they emerge. The sequences of the viruses provide the clues and the rules are extremely simple recombinomics.com You can talk about pandemics all you want, but without understanding how viruses emerge and evolve, the talk won't do much - the viruses don't read this board or press releases - they just follow some very basic rules that have worked quite well for billions of years. The situation in Korea has examples of all of the above - a virus that moved from a lab into pigs, reassorted with avian viruses, and then recombined to pick up swine sequences from swine viruses and create new genes by picking up polymoprhisms from the swine virus and making new avian / avian and human / avian genes. The situation is quite a teaching tool, but there still has been no announcement about 1933 human viruses in 2004 Korean swine. recombinomics.com

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (14942)	12/26/2004 7:08:30 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

>>too unrelated to the biology<< Saying that cold symptoms can't be caused by a cold virus is hardly unrelated to biology. In the summer of 2003, the known human cases of SARS were those of people who become ill during the flu season, and even among those, the symptoms (and case fatality rates) varied markedly by age. The virus had also benn mutating throughout the flu season, so predicting symptoms for the summer was pretty much guess work. The Winnipeg lab released sequence data which clearly was from SARS CoV. Unfortunately, they had contaminated the samples with their positive controls and the sequences they attributed to the nursing home samples came from lab contamination. There was media speculation on a Son of SARS CoV and I posted that since there were two sequences, and both were exact matches of known SARS isolates (which had already muttaed extensively), Son of SARS arguments were nonsense. I have commented quite a bit on both SARS and Avian flu and the comments in dozens of media stories are linked below for all to see and make their own decisions about predictive value and accuracy. recombinomics.com The CDC and WHO blew the case fatality rates badly with regard to SARS and they have similar problems with avian flu I warned WHO about the situation in Korea many weeks ago recombinomics.com Its a serious situation and will be widely covered, although coverage at this time is limited to mainland China recombinomics.com As far as your Aria trading was concerned, you had posted about how much money you made by trading Aria before the news was out, and I simply asked if you were trading on insider information (based on the claims you posted), which I don't recall you ever answering. Maybe I just missed it.