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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rational who wrote (19558)	12/26/2004 10:07:59 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 116555

:0) I see your meaning, and unfortunately must agree, for the crowds is predictable, always willingly march, by rank and file, into obvious traps. not only in the US, but everywhere for much of the time

To: Rational who wrote (19558)	12/27/2004 5:30:24 PM
From: Kailash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

But, in the short-run, red-America will applaud a Congressional fiat voiding all international debt. The U.S. produces an abundant quantity of food and so Americans will not be hurt physiologically. They have stock-piled abundant quantities of Chinese made toys and goodies for play by their future generations. All that is vitally needed for a comfortable living in exurbia is gasoline. Bush thinks he has enough bombs to secure oil and Congress may go along that route to try to solve the deficit problem. Interesting proposition -- do an Argentina. Two counter-arguments. First, this won't happen until large US corporations see it to be in their interest. You might get Ford and GM to support the scheme, and possibly the steel industry and the agricultural sector; also the textile makers. The US is a net importer of high technology, but there are segments that are highly internationalized and successful. Boeing is still a major exporter -- I'm guessing the US is still a net exporter of aircraft. It would be ruinous to the financial sector -- that alone makes it unlikely to happen. Second, it's not plausible to imagine a scenario where the US would be able to sustain stealing oil in the Middle East at nuclear-tipped gunpoint in the quantities required. This would certainly trigger a large-scale war and is not a sustainable business plan. Why don't we just accept we'll have a depression as US dominance of the world economy passes? It's happened to others before us. K