Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (19616)	12/27/2004 5:06:28 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 116555

is based on : Interest rates in Brazil are topping around 17% The world enters a slower growth pattern - lower demand for petrochemicals USD will fall at a lower pace v. the Real Bonds will go up as interests rates come down BAK will top out and in the meantime collect interest on the bonds Real Put will expire worthless if demand strengthen - bonds will advance due to better cashflow BAK will rise due to better profits Real will rise due to more exports - real Put expires worthless (net you earn much less as before) Now based on interest rate differential and IV of 12% Real /USD Put (long Real) is quite pricy or about 9% for 2 months which I sell