Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: benwood who wrote (19629)	12/28/2004 8:28:48 AM
From: Mary Cluney	Respond to of 116555

There are a lot of homes and properties owned on speculation, though, and many things can start those unwinding and help precipitate a shift in psychology and remove the topping fuel in some of the dramatic micro-bubbles and cause a significant and lasting change in ownership trends, especially multiple ownership trends. There are probably myriad interconnected variables in the economy that are too complex to identify even for the most sophisticated economic models. But, there is a bottom. The population is growing. The demand will be there. The biggest trend change will be away from piling on layers and layers of debt and instead working towards personal endgames that don't require working until one is 70+. I think just the opposite. People will live longer and at 65 years old there may be be another trimester of life to live. They will work longer. But, aspirational consumption will go higher. The gap will grow between the haves and havenots. For those that have, multiple cars, private schools, summer and winter vacations, and second homes are absolute necessities.

To: benwood who wrote (19629)	12/28/2004 11:04:42 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 116555

<There are a lot of homes and properties owned on speculation, though, and many things can start those unwinding and help precipitate a shift in psychology and remove the topping fuel in some of the dramatic micro-bubbles and cause a significant and lasting change in ownership trends, especially multiple ownership trends. The end of imported deflation (something I expect in the next couple of years) will encourage people to think more about what they are doing with their money, and there will be some who will cut their housing costs in half by selling and renting.> I believe most are clueless (probably even Greenspan/Bush) as to how rampant the speculation in residential real estate especially in fast growing bubble markets is these days. High end urban condos now are the rage that few can truly afford are going up like gangbusters with up to 80% controlled by flippers. Building lots up 10 fold in price in just a few years with tons of speculators trying to control the land ahead of the need of builders to buy it at almost any price to satisfy the unrelenting demand. What is going on in FLorida, Arizona, Nevada and California is not normal.