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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Galirayo who wrote (110770)	12/29/2004 12:40:31 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Ray, it looks like NICE is one of those 7% success stories I don't know if you're aware of it but in 2/01 everybody was talking about a study mentioned in the WSJ where the author found that (since the 50's, I think) of all stocks that were at one time over $20, if they subsequently fell below $10 then 93% of them never rise above 20 again. So NICE appears to be an exception to that "rule." But as for right now, to refer to mc's frequent line of thinking about various issues, there's a lot of R above on your 5 year chart. <g> PDE appears to be in an ascending triangle off its May low, so if the pattern does was it's supposed to do I guess we'll see a breakout after 20.15 or so. I don't really like MU, but I'd feel better about going long on that one when it breaks the down trendline from its September high, currently around 20.25 or so. Actually, I'm not that keen on any of the semis right now, regardless of ST technicals, as they've clearly been a laggard in this rally since the COMPX August low, and there's a good reason for it: many of those companies have the same excess inventory problems they had since last winter, and not that much has changed on that issue, and everybody knows it. In order to get the SOX ignited I was always looking for some kind of catalyst to make it do so, but one has not yet come. I thought INTC's upbeat report earlier this month might do the trick, but apparently it didn't do much except provide an exit point. Despite the idea that SMH might be arguably completing a 2 off the August low, if I was betting on a sector to benefit from a EOY rally into January I'd feel safer going with the internets and I'd choose HHH instead.