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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (23864)	12/29/2004 12:13:17 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

I know that in Orange County, CA in terms of opened escrows September was slow but October and November were very strong. Apparently the pattern was similar nationwide as we see that November closures were strong. What happened here was that during slow September many properties got discounted and in October and November the buyers went in and snapped "the bargains". I know one buyer who lost in bidding war in May with $526,000 bid. He bought similar property in October for $475,000. For the reference that kind of property was $400,000 in October 2003 and $175,000 in 1997.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (23864)	12/29/2004 12:33:10 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

NAR's existing home sales number is actually one of the most accurate numbers available to the public. The adjustments, unlike unemployment rate, are also the easy to understand. Everyone who follows the real estate sector should have a gut feel as to what had driven the markets in the last twelve months. While we can make logical adjustments going forward, the NAR methodology is a reflection of actuals and must adjust accordingly with no regards to actual trends. e.g. at 6,940,000 rate, we need a simple avg of 578,333 sales per month to meet that expectation. Look at CY2004. Is the 578k per month expectation realistic?