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To: elmatador who wrote (57762)	12/29/2004 7:32:12 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<<Two large blasts were heard in the Saudi capital Riyadh ...>> ... and so it has started, the politics by other means and economics by another way

To: elmatador who wrote (57762)	12/29/2004 11:13:49 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello Elmat, Following on that Message 20898222 earlier, now this ... stratfor.biz Saudi Arabia Bombings: New Direction for Al Qaeda? Dec 29, 2004 Summary At least two major explosions shook the Saudi capital of Riyadh on Dec. 29, the location of the blasts suggesting that the targets were not Westerners but the al Saud regime itself. If this is the case, then al Qaeda jihadists in the kingdom have activated a major shift in their operations -- in keeping with threats announced by Osama bin Laden in his Dec. 16 message. Analysis Two separate bombs exploded near the Saudi Ministry of Interior (MOI) building in Riyadh on Dec. 29, and at least one militant reportedly was killed and two were arrested. Although the facts are unclear at this point -- gunbattles continue to rage in the vicinity -- Saudi diplomatic sources have told Stratfor that Islamist militants launched a coordinated attack against the MOI building. The attackers, according to these sources, apparently planned to blast the MOI building with two suicide car bombs, aiming to collapse the structure, which is in the form of an upside-down pyramid. However, the sources said that Saudi government security forces managed to intercept some of the militants before they reached the ministry. During the firefight, the drivers of the car bombs detonated their vehicles as security forces began to surround them. The sources said that several teams of attackers approached the MOI building armed with small arms, and ambushed the security forces there. Currently, the Saudi sources said, Saudi forces are attempting to encircle the area in the effort to eliminate as many attackers as possible. However, according to the sources, the attackers do not appear to be retreating, but are attempting to break through into the MOI building. The fact that the blasts occurred near the MOI building -- which is close to other government buildings, including the Ministry of Defense and Air Aviation, the Ministry of Communication and Riyadh Palace -- suggests that the attack most likely was intended against the regime and not against a Western target. If this is the case, then this represents a massive operational shift on the part of al Qaeda, less than two weeks after al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden threatened to stage attacks against the al Saud regime unless it stepped down. Other than the attack against the Saudi special forces counterterrorism agency in April by a group calling itself the Brigades of the Two Holy Mosques, the al Qaeda Organization in the Arabian Peninsula (the jihadist network's chapter in the kingdom) has refrained from attacking the regime directly. That the attack took place after hours, at 8:35 p.m. local time, indicates that the jihadists continue to be cautious about causing Muslim casualties and that they designed this attack as a warning shot to show that al Qaeda can make good on its threat -- and relatively quickly. In any case, al Qaeda has shifted gears in Saudi Arabia by going after the al Saud regime directly. This does not mean that the network will not attack Western targets. Instead, it has upped the ante. Copyright 2004 Strategic Forecasting Inc. All rights reserved.