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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (19866)	12/29/2004 10:38:54 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 116555

I agree. That article shocked me! Quoting: "Foreign demand has certainly climbed over the years, but it picked up rapidly this year," said Frank. Net foreign purchases of MBS were $242 billion in mid-2004, up $19 billion from year-end 2003 and $35 billion more than 2002, according to Inside MBS & ABS, a publication of Inside Mortgage Finance. That means foreign support for mortgages was: 2002 $207 Billion 2003 $223 Billion 2004 (first 6 months) $242 Billion! Wow. Once again, I think we will see a slowing economy WITH rising interest rates in 2005 ... a terrible combination.

To: mishedlo who wrote (19866)	12/29/2004 10:43:30 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish, Given Your View on US Rates in a Housing Crash World, but also with a mindful eye towards what the US Dollar may do in 2005, would it be correct to speculate the safest bet of all is in European Bonds, Canadian Bonds, Aussie Bonds, and NZ Bonds? Would be curious to know how you intend to play it. Heinz beautifully articulates, btw, the machinations we see right now--here at the long end of a 20 year run in US bonds, deliciously noting the sustained and chronic presence of Bond Bears and their tenacious, unwavering outlook. Where I find Heinz a tad lacking, however, is that while he makes a beautiful case for where the US bond market stands today--and what may happen in a economic downturn here in the US--he has been more sparing with his analysis of how the US T-Bond market is hugely propped-up. Surely even the reasonable man concludes the US T-Bond market is artificial now, and has been stripped of its historical role to forecast well the future. Surely you must feel some caution, yourself, at the prospect of playing a US recession via US interest rate plays--with the looming dollar out there ready to grind another bond rally to dust. For myself, I just think Canada offers bounteous opps in both the stocks, the currency, and the bonds. Regards, LP