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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (20375)	12/30/2004 2:40:39 PM
From: Ray Rueb	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78476

CSBK seems like a bad choice to me. Paul – in an earlier post you said “Yeah, took me a while to find outstanding shares. I get (11/12/04 10-Q) "30,530,470 shares issue and outstanding". If so, based on the way I look at it - and that's just me - a buyer pays a high price (price/book) for what he/she gets (ROA) from this bank. I'll pass.” First off, can I recommend “Yahoo Key statistics” page. finance.yahoo.com I find it useful and it only took 20 seconds to come up with nearly the same number you came up with. In data mining, accuracy is less important than consistency. I find this page gives me the ability to compare stocks and perform a reasonable first pass that can help me prioritize where my energies can most appropriately be applied. Here’s my quick assessment of CSBK: 1. The revenue to Market Cap ratio is 0.07253 – BAD signal. I don’t like to go long anything when this ratio is less than 1.0 2. The Market Cap is 377.05 – GOOD signal. I prefer to invest in smaller companies with Market Caps under 2 Billion (Lynch principle number 1) 3. The Revenue growth is -12% – VERY BAD signal. I prefer to invest in companies that are expanding, not contracting, I prefer companies who are growing at 20% or more (Lynch principle number 2) 4. The Earnings growth is -29.3% – BAD signal. I can be more forgiving of negative earnings growth than I am of negative Revenue growth. I prefer companies who are growing profits at 20% or more (Lynch principle number 2) 5. The float is 30.2MM shares – Seems a little high for this small a company. BAD signal. 6. The % Held by Insiders is 1.08% - VERY BAD signal. It looks like no one at this company has any skin in the game. I like it when my interests and management’s interests coincide. 7. Comparison with other stocks I follow says this stock is a weak short, not a long – BAD signal. I follow stocks that people recommend on the Value thread and on the 50% gains thread. These should be mostly longs so it is possible that some longs could slip into the short half of the portfolio, but I prefer to go long on the top half of my watch list. BTW, this stock seems to be a worse long than RIMM, a stock I have shorted in the past. 8. MACD trend is currently downward – This says the timing might be bad to buy. Paul, I respect your opinion and use you as a model for how to do long term value investing. I am admittedly bad at momentum and day trading though I do find them to be seductive if unprofitable. I am currently working on transitioning my investment style to the value method you espouse. I’m an engineer and I’d like to find a quantitative way of selecting candidates that can help remove most of the emotion around a potential stock. I’d like to hear whether the indicators I’ve listed above seem important to you. Also, what indicators would you suggest? You all be careful out there, Ray

To: Paul Senior who wrote (20375)	5/3/2007 1:09:23 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78476

I'll reenter regional bank NAL with a few share buy. A bank analyst recommendation on Bloomberg yesterday prompted me to review it again: Decent franchise and they are apparently coming up to the three-year public trading time, which, if I understand right, means because of tax consequences, they could become a more attractive buyout candidate. These bank mutuals that have gone public - the ones I've followed anyway - seem to be dull companies whose stocks are slow movers. And their dividends aren't that attractive either. Still holding KRNY in this venue. finance.yahoo.com