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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (19989)	12/30/2004 11:14:07 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Do you think the U.S. housing prices will go up in a vacuum as other nations such as Australia and the U.K. see significant slowing? What about the recent housing starts, Las Vegas inventory build-up and now the slowdown in California which started in the O.C.? Would these be indicators? In my opinion the housing crash is coming soon. My recent trip to London solidified my stance as I saw what exactly a housing bust looks like. The key is always in the inventory.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (19989)	12/30/2004 11:23:38 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

by the same token: do NOT underestimate the ability of the Fed and the Agencies to perpetuate the US housing bubble. it seems the true bubbles all go on longer than anybody expects, especially when the people with the money hose have no interest in turning off the spigot. They can NOT control that one. There is no housing PPT and there is no way to force people to buy houses either. The only remote chance is by lowering interest rates. Once the decline starts, there will be too many jobs lost and no way to put it all back together. If incomes do not rise with housing prices, there is NO chance any prop job can stop the decline once sentiment changes. Not here, not in Japan. Thus I disagree. Mish