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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taikun who wrote (57950)	12/31/2004 4:09:54 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi David, I see your style. Buy where the puck will be, not where it is now. Your tar sands stock, OPC.TO is taking off nicely even though it doesn't satisfy my investment criterion which is don't buy until they really make money. That's what makes a horse race. I think you are at the track every day and know much more than I who only listen to the late races over the radio. Neither PVM.TO nor FT.TO make money now but that doesn't bother you. If I had to bet I'd say that in 2005 and future years you will make more money than my style will and I will sleep more tranquilly. One small matter. As you say, coal is plentiful. Also, outside of making steel coal is only used for generating electricity. It is not environmentally friendly for that use so we have to wait until the clean coal is a reality, maybe 2010, to see a lot of new coal consuming electric generators being ordered. Very little oil is used to generate electricity. Oil distillates are mainly used for heating houses and moving vehicles, ships, planes. Coal doesn't compete there. Coal may do much better than Oil and NG in 2005 but the rationale is not so clear. Warmer winters are almost guaranteed by global warming. That says oil should get cheaper. However, it is still more difficult to find new oil than new coal. I'm struck by the tremendous affection people have, all over the world, for cars. I hate cars; they are dangerous so dangerous. How many people in the world must live out a maimed existence because they were in a car accident. How many people lost parents or children or dear friends because of car accidents. This great affection, spread all over the globe, will push up the price of oil, maybe not soon but eventually. Coal doesn't power cars. $55 per barrel of oil is needed for coal to liquid fuel conversion to compete with gasoline. JMHO