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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (20020)	12/31/2004 12:39:07 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 116555

true enough: and Japan is the real example recently, though to be fair we need to acknowledge that they are not the blue blooded spenders americans are , who seem genetically incapable of saving anymore

To: mishedlo who wrote (20020)	12/31/2004 1:20:36 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 116555

<When housing goes it is all over and I do not care at what interest rate it starts. If you presume that it will take a big spike in rates to kill housing, I believe you are mistaken. Housing starts and new home sales are already showing the way.> Perhaps indirectly we have a simple answer. The short end continuing to move up will truly hurt those highly leveraged recent buyers on ARM's and price just about every first time home buyer out of the market in bubble markets. Hey time will tell and I can understand where you are coming from but you must see the mania for housing in many bubble markets as not something that will just end with a whimper. Maybe even just ARMS in the mid 5% range and with tighter Fannie Mae underwriting guidelines might do the trick. Happy New Year to all here.