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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (20038)	12/31/2004 1:11:31 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

great post, russ. I hope everyone on these threads has a healthy and prosperous new year. thanks to all of the great posters for sharing their knowledge

To: russwinter who wrote (20038)	12/31/2004 1:11:38 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 116555

Russ thanks for the info. Will look at it over the weekend. How does this stagflationary scenario upcoming compare to the 1970's? Too me it looks like it could be a lot worse in many ways. Considering we probably agree the BLS figures are phony then the easy monetary policy of the past three years is even looser than the late 60's early 70's period. Also seems the real GDP growth is not quite what it is stated to be as well and the biggest confirmation of that is looking at the S&P 500 still below levels of 5 years ago even with 45 year low interest rates.

To: russwinter who wrote (20038)	1/1/2005 12:00:12 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 116555

A protracted "weak dollar" environment signals a reverse in the fortunes of the dollar unlike anything I have seen in my lifetime -- I am interested in thinking through the consequences -- the impact on the US economy, the impact on asset prices such as stocks and housing, the impact on other economies and their prospects and asset prices. Sorry to be self-centered, but I would like to be able to eat 10 to 15 years from now. What happens over the medium to long term in a weak dollar environment?

To: russwinter who wrote (20038)	1/3/2005 3:56:21 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

rigged bond market? Message 20903621 Reply from Heinz: 'legitimate' vs. 'rigged' bond rally? i don't quite get that one. imo the US bond market is far too large to be successfully rigged by anyone. as for the government's budget deficit, Japan's budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is more than twice as high than the US deficit. this didn't prevent JGB yields to fall to 0.45% at one point. it is not the size of the budget deficit that's important in this context - it is the market's perception of whether the government is or isn't likely to default on it. the supply of outstanding bonds of course increases with a higher budget deficit, but i would expect e.g. the banks to flee their more risky assets (such as mortgages) in coming years and shift their asset base toward the 'safest' debt - which is the government's. again, see Japan - it has happened there.