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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: el_gaviero who wrote (23948)	1/1/2005 12:14:15 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

<one of the ripples that comes along, picking up and dropping my boat two inches, proceeds to roll into shore and turn into a 40 foot tsunami.> Your big wave perspective may well be the key. However, you might want to grab Charles Kindleberger's history of Manias, Panics and Busts, it's a fairly quick, easy read. Although a big political economy event may be the driver, more often than not, you notice the Bust catalyst from these hyper-liquidified Booms emerges from smaller ripples, and are often a surprise to everyone. My fixation on the "Bubble management" behind the Wizards of Oz curtains is consistent with that. I really expect that it (the Bust) may be forthcoming when Oz flips the wrong smoke machine at some point. Just too many Master of the Universe switches and levers to juggle. The central point to it, have even corrections been totally abolished by the Wizards? That's a tall order.

To: el_gaviero who wrote (23948)	1/2/2005 12:08:51 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

el gaviero, Thanks for a thoughtful post, and like you, I admire the efforts that Russ puts into sharing his whizdumb with us yokels. *** Re: in the fall of 1987. Those who lived through that event will remember that for all practical purposes the markets were shut down. There is one huge difference between then and now. The PPT. The Plunge Protection Team has intervened in the market effectively, somewhat opaquely and when need arises. They aren't going away, making a 22% one-day meltdown such as occurred on October 19, 1987 an impossibility. Of course the exchanges have imposed circuit-breakers which you correctly state will prevent some from unwinding unsavory positions in a timely fashion. But that seems a small price to pay compared with the unnecessary damage done by panic-tsunamis such as the markets endured in October, 1987.