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Strategies & Market Trends : Aardvark Adventures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (905)	1/1/2005 5:54:53 PM
From: ~digs	Respond to of 7944

Message 20906498 the four-year presidential-election ... In Year Four, very, very seldom are there big declines. Going into next year, Year One, it's quite different. If you are in the overpriced half of the cycle, since 1932 two-thirds of those years have been down in real terms. The first two years of the cycle, when the administration cools it on stimulus and tax cuts and does some house cleaning, combined with an overpriced market, have not been a very profitable time to be in the market. The average expectation is minus 6% for the year. It is not catastrophic, but it is way, way below consensus expectations. The bad news is that the second year is about the same