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Technology Stocks : SONS -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Home-Run who wrote (196)	1/1/2005 2:07:18 PM
From: Home-Run	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575

SBC, Cingular, and BT all know by now who their primary vendors will be. That's right vendors.. plural. All trials have come to a point in time where these Carriers have had a chance to evaluate results and can now make prudent decisions. Sonus has a good idea on where they stand in this process. Not only do they know how well their products performed in these trials, but they probably have a good idea on how their competitors are fairing. What entices the Carriers final decision may be anything from superior technology to all the extra bundling of other products from which a company can try swaying the Carrier. Right now, at the moment, Sonus is in the ballgame. Past performance and product quality & interoperability count with Carriers. Between now and the end of the first quarter Sonus will decide whether to go it alone or merge with a complementary company. Shorts are betting that the above noted Carriers choose other vendors. Longs are betting that at least one of these vendors choose Sonus. The truth probably lies somewhere in between. Carriers seldom rely on a single Vendor for the obvious reasons of holding leverage over the vendor and not relying on one format that may prove flawed. Sonus has been very smart in developing its product line to interoperate with varying vendor and carrier architecture. For this reason their product line will not only be valuable to Sonus and its primary Carriers, but also to any possible large telecom vendor interested in buying them. Shorting this stock is a risky proposition and will require 24-7 vigilance. With the shorts it's all about short term timing. They need a good run up to short from here and then hope that a "bad" announcement comes out. Run the stock price down and cover.(they'll have to cover quickly to take profits before another announcement comes out that may be good) If Sonus gets a small piece of the action the price won't stay down for long for 2 reasons. (longs will have something to hang their hats on & the next announcement may be as good or even better) All Sonus has to do to be successful in this hot Voip market is to get base hits from the carriers not homeruns. A homerun would mean cover city for sure, but I wouldn't count on homeruns. Before all of the announcements are made and if Sonus sees that things aren't going so well then expect them to make an announcement that a company or companies have approached them with an offer. With 300 million in cash, positive earnings and cash flow, and interoperable products that are in demand in this red hot market a company such as Juniper or Cisco could probably purchase sonus for between 10 to 15 dollars a share. Either 1st quarter 2005 or for sure by the 2nd quarter Sonus will be running as a successful stand alone company or heading into the open arms of a Vendor Giant. This is my simple assessment for what it's worth. - from Yhoo msg board messages.yahoo.com