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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (18792)	1/1/2005 5:11:38 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

What's bashing and what's discussion -- sometimes it seems you are pretty sensitive, JT. Bernie had a pretty similar forecast last year, eh? yep, he missed badly. care to share your targets? -- it's ok if you don't want to. I'm not very good at forecasting the indices, but I think there are some macro things that can be forecast pretty easily here: 1) Housing bust 2) Further debacle in the Middle East -- probably including bloody civil war in Iraq ( I mean bloodier than what is going on now) 3) An attendant loss of popularity for Bush if more troops are called up or the draft is re-instated (remember Bush 1's no new taxes -- now Bush 2 is on record saying no reinstatement of the draft) 4) Increased surveillance here of law-abiding citizens or groups that become more vocal against the war effort 5) Some large bailout of an important creditor (looking for this in the 2nd quarter of 2005) Any of these could have bearish or bullish implications depending on the way they turn out -- but volatility indices are scraping multi-year lows -- are they discounting nirvana?? can 2005 deliver? At any rate it will be interesting ... money to be made LONG and SHORT, I am sure. Do you think Bush is really going to make any cuts in the budget like all the talk we've been hearing??

To: J.T. who wrote (18792)	1/1/2005 11:42:47 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Since it has been claimed that I ridiculed Bernie's 2004 market prediction, I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt. Maybe I was too hard on the Bernie judging 1 year. I decided to look up Bernie's track record in Mark Hulbert's Financial Digest. Facts on his track record - as reported by a neutral third party. Furthermore, since I know Bernie missed the mark badly in 2004 with his prognostication - I tossed out all 2004 numbers. I decided only to look at his track record thru December 31, 2003. Bernie has been tracked by Hulbert since 12/31/82 His overall performance returns since 12/31/82 is as follows: From January 1, 1983 Through December 31, 2003: Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor Aggressive Portfolio: 20 + years annualized returns: (- 14.8%) 15 years annualized returns : (- 3.5%) 10 years annualized returns : (- 9.5%) On December 31, 1996 Bernie added a 2nd Portfolio tracked by Hulbert called the Put Selling Portfolio to Improve his returns. The combined portfolios returns is more impressive: 5 Years annualized returns: 2.5% 1 Year return for 2003: 18.7% 1 Year return for 2002: 2.5% Finally, Hulbert said Schaeffer was one of the five worst newsletters in his database over the past 10 years. You be the judge of Schaefer's returns; facts posted by independent third party Mark Hulbert's Financial Digest.