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To: RealMuLan who wrote (58059)	1/1/2005 6:48:22 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Warning: There will be no tsunami warning By Eric Koo Peng Kuan SINGAPORE - Asian governments were caught totally off guard by the December 26 tsunami disaster. Now the calls are loud for the implementation in the Indian Ocean of an early warning system akin to that of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center based in Hawaii. Don't hold your breath waiting for it. Natural disasters, especially floods, are nothing new to Asia, with its largely maritime and coastal terrain and numerous rivers. In fact, heavy rains and changes in wave patterns are expected in the many areas that experience an annual monsoon season. Until a few decades ago, frequent flooding by China's two great rivers, the Yellow and the Yangtze, were considered unavoidable. A tropical storm in late November 2004 in the Philippines caused floods and landslides that killed at least 300. Malaysian states nearer to the east coast, like Kelantan, Trengganu and Pahang, were also badly affected by floods in December, with at least 12 reported dead. Asian governments' policies in coping with natural disasters have always been those of reaction rather than prevention. All available state assets are usually utilized, especially the uniformed services, in organizing rescue, relocation and humanitarian aid efforts. With the exception of China, where flood prevention was for thousands of years part of the national psyche, there have been few conscious and active large-scale mobilizations of state efforts to prevent natural disasters. The reason is not ignorance or misinformation on the part of governments. The bureaucratic ethos of being reluctant to implement an initiative for fear of shouldering blame is better designed to be responsive rather than proactive. Ugly economics plays a major part too. Long-term damage to the environment caused by deforestation, haphazard industrialization, mining and building of dams leads to increased likelihood of flooding. Governments are obviously reluctant to move against companies that cause ecological damage through their commercial activities. The economic benefits far outweigh environmental damage in the short term. Philippine President Gloria Arroyo blamed the November floods on illegal logging, but the fact is, illegal logging will continue. Moreover, residents of disaster-prone areas are reluctant to relocate as their businesses or jobs will be badly affected. They prefer to take their chances with Mother Nature, thus creating social and environmental problems. After all, natural disasters do not strike every day, unlike the dangers posed to human life by other humans - social unrest, terrorism and crime. Economic laws take precedence over the possibility of human lives being lost. Set up an early warning or detection system against natural disasters? It looks good on paper, but who will foot the bill? Asia has weathered countless natural disasters that have claimed millions of lives. In the medium term, the odds of a tsunami disaster of this scale happening again are rather small. Governments certainly will pragmatically take their chances rather than devote resources to a project akin to an insurance policy against a natural disaster which may or may not happen again for many years. There are many far more pressing problems on Asian governments' agendas. Natural disasters are perceived fatalistically as unavoidable. It's easier and cheaper to lose a few sheep from the flock to the wolves, than it is to go to the trouble of seeking new pastures free from wolves. Cynical as it may sound, that is the old way for Asia and last Sunday's disaster won't change it. The writer holds a Master of Science in Strategic Studies from Singapore's Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies. He specializes in international affairs, security issues and terrorism. (Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing.) atimes.com