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To: nextrade! who wrote (26384)1/2/2005 8:53:15 AM
From: nextrade!Respond to of 306849
 
From our friends are Contrary Investor

Without sounding over the top, we believe this anecdotal evidence of change in the character of the US consumer base deserves much more than a modicum of attention moving forward. And in the meantime, we expect the Fed to continue “creating” liquidity like there’s no tomorrow. Watch their repo activity, coupon pass activity and the weekly Fed custodial holdings of US financial assets for the foreign sector for clues as to liquidity creation intensity. This is what’s influencing stock and housing values over the very short term, but finding very little traction in terms of goosing the real economy. In terms of Wal-Mart, it appears that their customers are going to need an improving labor and wage environment. Almost ironically as of late, the Fed has actually been withdrawing stimulus and liquidity from the real economy vis-à-vis the Fed Funds rate increases, but alternatively it has been pouring liquidity into the financial markets via a very heightened level of repurchase and coupon pass activity over the past few months. (Has the Fed been doing this recently to potentially blunt or divert attention from the important goings on at Fannie Mae? After all, they have somewhere between 9 and 13 billion reasons to be a little bit worried.) In our minds, the Fed is simply exacerbating the US domestic wealth dichotomy of the moment. A short term panacea, but a longer term erosion of the broad economic base.

ContraryInvestor.com

Monthly Market Observations

January 2005

contraryinvestor.com



To: nextrade! who wrote (26384)1/5/2005 9:12:06 AM
From: nextrade!Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Can't wait to build? Wait here

Wednesday, January 5, 2005

By BETH QUIMBY, Portland Press Herald Writer

pressherald.mainetoday.com

Copyright © 2005 Blethen Maine Newspapers Inc.

Staff photo by Shawn Patrick Ouellette

Shelly Gobeille sleeps while waiting in line for a housing permit at Shapleigh Town Hall on Tuesday morning. She and friends Doreen Woodward, left, Sheila Thomas, center, and Linda Thomas (not pictured) took turns holding Linda Thomas' spot in line, which was No. 13. Also waiting for a permit was Roger Btchelder, in background second from left.

Diane Ahern arrived Friday outside Acton Town Hall and announced she intended to stand there for the next four days unless the town accepted her offer: $100 a day to stay in the hall's annex.

The Marlborough, Mass., resident was determined to be first in line to obtain one of the town's coveted 35 housing permits.

Town officials let her in. Within hours, Ahern and her husband had been joined by a rush of other permit seekers toting sleeping bags, coolers and board games for the long wait until 1 p.m. Tuesday, when the code enforcement officer started accepting applications.

They were among dozens of people who camped out at town halls in Acton and Shapleigh during New Year's weekend. The two towns are among the 17 York County municipalities, out of a total of 29, that have adopted growth caps to limit the influx of newcomers and the strain they can put on municipal services.

Those who endured the wait took vacation time from their jobs, slept in chairs or cold cars and missed family emergencies. Many made new friends. And nearly everyone had a story to tell about how they came to be sitting in a line for days in order to live in a rural town in southern Maine, said Mary Taylor of Lyman, who wanted a permit to build a retirement home on land her father bought in Shapleigh in the 1940s.

While some communities with growth caps maintain waiting lists or hold lotteries, Acton and Shapleigh hand out permits on a first-come, first-served basis, starting on the towns' first business day of the year, which was Tuesday.

In Shapleigh, which adopted a growth cap more than a decade ago, permit applicants started showing up early about two years ago. Last year, the line formed the night before. This year, people came five days early.

"The first person shows up and starts a stampede," said Steven McDonough, code enforcement officer in Shapleigh.

By Tuesday, more than 40 people had lined up to apply for 33 permits in Shapleigh, and more than 40 waited for a shot at the 35 permits in Acton. Others came in at the last minute to apply and will be last in line as permits are distributed over the next 12 months.

It will take weeks or months to process applications and award the first round of permits. Those at the end of the line held out hope that some permits would be redistributed if construction plans change or fall through.

Brothers Carl and Henry Desruisseaux of Sanford started the stampede in Shapleigh about 7:30 p.m. Thursday. In half an hour, another eight people were in line.

For the first three days, they had to wait outside. The town hall parking lot on Back Road quickly turned into a campsite, filled with cars, trucks and recreational vehicles. Someone set up a barbecue.

By Sunday, the selectmen relented and threw open the doors to the second floor so the crowd could wait where it was warm. Soon, an elbow-to-elbow line of lawn chairs and portable beds snaked through the room. The air grew heavy.

Informal systems were set up. Rules were established. People in line could leave for a short walk or pit stop, but if they wanted to retain their spot, they or their representative had to be present. Roll calls were held. A list was created.

For some, the waiting became a family business, with sons taking a shift for their mothers and granddaughters sitting in for grandfathers.

"My system is: I was here during the day and my husband was here at night," Diane Ahern said in Acton.

The Aherns and Kevin and Diane Veroneau of Sanford, who arrived two hours later, created the rules for the Acton line. They made it clear to all newcomers that they were expected to help cover the rental cost and keep the space clean and orderly.

In Shapleigh, with no particular person in charge, the system was not always immediately clear to newcomers. That was why Peter Fuller of Northwood, N.H., dropped several spots on the list and why he looked so despondent Tuesday morning. He said he left for a couple of hours Monday not realizing the consequences.

"Apparently, you have to have a chair," he said.

Some of those waiting not only celebrated New Year's Eve in a line, but also lost out on crucial family moments.

While Terry Hardy of Sanford waited, his wife was rushed to the hospital, his stepdaughter gave birth and his oldest daughter celebrated a birthday.

He could only explain his behavior as something inherent to Mainers. "Mainers camp out," he shrugged.

In Acton, Peter White of Tyngsboro, Mass., said he regrets not knowing more about Mainers. He had left home at 3 a.m. Tuesday, figuring he'd arrive before the lines formed, only to find out he was days too late.

With 10 minutes to go in Shapleigh, piles of empty coffee containers and doughnut boxes covered table tops. Someone had created a scrapbook of the group's travails, complete with photographs.

"We had a lot of time," said Andy Shackley of Shapleigh, No. 3 in line there.

Selectman Bill Hayes showed up to announce that a public meeting would be called to see if the town should set up an alternative system for doling out its permits.

"I applaud their attitude. If I stood here for five days, I'm not sure I would be so cheery," he said.

While few of those waiting said they liked the first-come, first-served system, almost everyone said they favored growth caps. They said they were willing to stand in line to live in a rural town where people are friendly.

Sean Allaire, No. 11 in Shapleigh, said that last fall he announced to officials at Massabesic Junior High School, where he teaches language arts, that he might have to miss a few days early in January so he could stand in line for a permit to build a home in the town where he grew up. He said they understood.

At 9 a.m., a collective whoop went up at Shapleigh Town Hall as the people who had been waiting stood up from their chairs to move downstairs to the code enforcement office. There was no shoving or pushing.

"Everyone has been really nice. It's been great," said Kurt Saltmarsh of Shapleigh, No. 16.

In Acton, there were several more hours to go, but conditions were roomier. Tables had been set up, and those in line had space to read, knit and play games.

Patti Welch of Middleton, Mass., No. 26 in Acton, was at work on a jigsaw puzzle that she started Saturday afternoon. She spent several nights sleeping in the town hall kitchen and said she did not regret the experience a bit.

During her wait she met her new hairdresser and her new veterinarian, and her husband was offered a job.

"I have met so many nice people," said Welch, who plans to move to Acton when her husband retires in a couple of years.