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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (20144)	1/2/2005 12:38:16 AM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 116555

Mish, give me your 10 predictions first, then I will give you mine. Man first, please<g>

To: mishedlo who wrote (20144)	1/2/2005 6:38:03 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Ok, Mish, here is mine, where is yours<g> My 10 predictions for China in 2005: 1. There will be no hard landing in China – GDP growth will be anywhere between 7%-9%; 2. The growth of investment in fixed assets will be slow down from 25% in 2004 to 15% or so in 2005; 3. Housing price in cities will increase slightly (5-10%), no burst of bubble; 4. RMB exchange rate will be stable (or <5% increase of the trading band); and the interest rate will be up 1%; 5. Farmers income will continue to rise (10% or higher) for second year in a row, so it will help the domestic consumption in China; 6. Inflation rate will be about the same as (4%) 2004; 7. Car sale will increase 10% or so but the manufacture's profit will go down; 8. Foreign retail business will double their market share in China (10% now) since 2005 is the 1st year China opening its retail market; The total retail business in China will increase 10-12%; 9. The central gov. will keep their macro-economic control through tightening loan/investment and land supply; 10. The total trade volume of China will continue to grow for around 15-20% (34% or so in 2004). The net export to the US will continue to be flat or down (it was down 0.5% in 2003 and down 0.2% in 2004). And 2005 will be the first year for China to have an annual trade deficit. Three major economic issues for China: inflation rate, oil price and RMB exchange rate. ================================================ My 10 predictions for 2005 (US): 1. President Bush's social security reform will go no where in 2005; 2. 100,000 US troops will have to remain in Iraq even if after the poll/election; 3. The US GDP will slow down to 3%-3.5%; 4. The interest rate will be up 1% or more; 5. Foreign CBs will slow down their purchase of US debt if not already; 6. US$ will be down another 10% vs. Euro/Yen, and the Gold will be up 5%; 7. Housing will slow down, but no bubble burst yet except some local ones; 8. More trade dispute between the US, EU and China; 9. Bush will have to cut down the US budget deficit, at least on paper<g>; 10. Number of US people who file bankruptcy will make a new high. Major economic issue for the US: budget deficit, oil price, social security.