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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (20153)	1/2/2005 12:35:06 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Elroy - You ever heard of Del Web? Buyers of their "Sun City" development here complained about all kinds of things. In summary Mr. Knill advised the Board of Trustees that The Planning Commission signed off on the approval of two golf courses and two recreation centers when Del Webb initially proposed an amendment to the Prime Group Annexation Agreement. When asked when the two additional facilities were gong to be constructed, Kevin Johnson, Del Webb representative, advised that he was unsure if the second golf course was going to be constructed. Mr. Knill continued by stating that the Huntley Harris Bank is going to fund the constructing of the second recreation center and he felt this was not acceptable because upon purchasing a house in Del Webb/Sun City the fees for the Golf courses and recreation centers are included in the price of the home. huntley.il.us I can not find the article about property values at "Sun City Huntley" crashing. Mish

To: mishedlo who wrote (20153)	1/2/2005 12:52:08 PM
From: TheStockFairy	Respond to of 116555

Huntley is in the middle of no where. I drive past there going to Marengo to visit an idiot friend who moved to the boonies to save a few bucks. I don't think there's even a hospital nearby, maybe Elgin is the closest or NIMC. Step outside the del web property and you can pick corn, literally.

To: mishedlo who wrote (20153)	1/2/2005 1:15:21 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish do you have an recent news paper article related to LV ? Back in May / June I was offered to secure financing for a $300 million project there which I indicated has no chance to be a go - no need to post the developer response <GG>

To: mishedlo who wrote (20153)	1/2/2005 5:39:21 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Respond to of 116555

There's one aspect to this story about $650k Del Webb homes in Las Vegas I can't agree with. I did the quick math on what Dell Webb, the builder had into these homes and figured that he had no more that 130 - 150k into the land and the construction costs for each home. Had these homes been built in 1996, the $150k cost estimate would have been true. But the same home built recently would have cost at least $520k because of the run-up in land costs. When I worked for Pardee Homes, we were the Number One builder in Las Vegas and we had the lowest cost structure. But our profit margin in Las Vegas was only 12% - compared with 52% in San Diego where Pardee had purchased the land 25 years earlier. The huge run-up in land values during a building cycle accrues to the land owner. No builder in Las Vegas has huge inventories of land they purchased 25 years earlier. I'm confident the builder profit margin on Las Vegas homes is well less than 20% at best, even in this bubbly market. Most land for homes in Las Vegas is purchased from the Federal Government BLM. BLM auction prices set the price for private sales. I'm sure we all recall the astronomical prices builders have been paying at BLM auctions in Las Vegas. death-valley.us forrelease.com When home prices continue to decline, builders will have large losses on the land inventory they do have. The parties walking away with the profits from the inflated prices paid by unhappy home owners are the BLM and private land owners who sold to the builders. .

To: mishedlo who wrote (20153)	1/2/2005 8:32:46 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 116555

mish, thanks for your gumshoe report on LV market. i guess the big question is, when will this expand to other regions. note that Austin market has been dead since the original tech bubble crash of 2000-2001 and prices are still off the 2000 peaks. btw 600-700K in Austin will get you what could only be called a mansion in a "Blue State". i can't believe people will pay that to live in a shack in the desert.