To: SOROS who wrote (2204 ) 1/2/2005 5:18:58 PM From: Rocket Red Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18308 China's Steel Supply May Surge as It Becomes Net Exporter End of the boom? 00:06 EST Thursday, December 30, 2004 For much of the past two years, China has threatened to foster a world steel shortage with its prodigious appetite for imports of the metal. Now the country has become a net exporter, its domestic demand is slowing and steelmaking capacity is up around the world, sparking concern over global oversupply and tougher times for the industry in the years ahead, Thursday's Wall Street Journal reported. Behind China's shift is a sharp slowdown in the growth of steel consumption at home combined with continued increases in production. As Beijing has worked to cool an overheated economy, the growth in domestic demand for steel recently has been rising only about 5% a month compared with year-earlier periods, after average monthly increases of 26% in 2002, 2003 and early 2004, according to UBS AG (UBS). Meanwhile, UBS estimates that Chinese steel production will climb 22% this year to 268 million tons, and grow a further 14% next year to 305 million tons. In November, China reported net exports of more than one million metric tons of steel, more than double October's level and a reversal from November 2003, when it was a net importer of nearly three million tons. China's emergence as a net steel exporter and rising capacity elsewhere highlights how quickly global commodity flows can shift directions. It also raises the question of whether China could as quickly reverse the trend and again squeeze global steel supplies. China in recent years has added so much new production of some raw materials, such as coal and aluminum, that even minor shifts in its economy could force it to dump unneeded supply on to the global marketplace, potentially sending prices down as quickly as they have gone up. Lower steel prices could be a boon to manufacturers, builders and consumers world-wide, helping to reduce costs in the plant and prices at the cash register. The impact on steelmakers is less rosy, especially in the U.S. While the American steel industry is in better shape, after a wave of bankruptcies and consolidation, to cope with oversupply, the U.S. would be at a big disadvantage against steelmakers in lower-cost countries. In addition to China, production in lower-cost regions like India and Eastern Europe has been surging in recent years. And when the dollar's weakness reverses, imports will look more attractive to U.S. customers. Wall Street Journal Staff Reporters Patrick Barta in Bangkok, Thailand, Paul Glader in Pittsburgh and Kersten Zhang in Beijing contributed to this article. Dow Jones Newswires 12-30-04 0005ET Copyright (C) 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. © Copyright Dow Jones