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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (70408)1/3/2005 10:02:25 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 89467
 
Ohio Recount Highlights Continuing Vote Trouble
___________________________________

by Jules Witcover

Published on Sunday, January 2, 2005 by the Baltimore Sun

WASHINGTON - Fifty-six days after voting for president had ended around the country, George W. Bush finally cleared the last prominent hurdle to his re-election last Tuesday when Ohio officials confirmed his victory there.

Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell said a statewide recount had left the president with a 118,000 vote lead over Sen. John Kerry, making him the clear winner in the Buckeye State and delivering the 20 electoral votes he needed for a majority in the Electoral College.

That wait was 20 days longer than Bush had to endure in 2000 before a much more contentious partial recount in Florida gave him the presidency, with a highly controversial helping hand from the U.S. Supreme Court.

This time around, because Bush had won the national popular vote by 3.5 million ballots, compared with losing by 539,000 in 2000, the result reported on election night was generally accepted then. But two third-party presidential candidates, for the Green and Libertarian parties, called for the recount in Ohio, which was their right, though neither had any chance of benefiting from it.

The third-party candidates have filed a suit before a federal court in Columbus, charging that due process was violated in the recount by not assuring uniform standards in counting, and seeking preservation of all ballot and voting machines for further scrutiny. But Congress is expected to accept Ohio's chosen Bush electors when it meets to certify Bush's 34-electoral-vote margin this week.

While the long recount in Ohio did not change Bush's victory there, it did shine a spotlight once again on the troubled presidential elective process. As a result of problems uncovered in Ohio, Congress and the states must face the reality that reforms enacted in the wake of the 2000 fiasco in Florida have fallen far short of completing the job.

Irregularities reported Nov. 2 in Ohio and many other states - including Florida, which supposedly cleaned up its act after the 2000 election - cry out for further nationwide reforms, critics say. Congress did not go nearly far enough in 2002 in writing the Help America Vote Act and voting $3.8 billion for states to upgrade their machines and processes, they add.

Several witnesses at a House Judiciary Committee hearing last month, called by ranking Democratic member Rep. John Conyers Jr. of Michigan (but boycotted by Republican members), said national uniformity is the prime reform needed.

Congress, in the act, did not provide for 2004 such things as national election laws requiring standards on voting rules, kinds of ballots, and methods of casting and counting them in every state. Instead, each state elections board continued to go its own way in a federal election that really is a collection of state contests.

Even when Congress stipulated that all states must give every voter the chance to cast a provisional ballot - an outcome of the Florida experience in 2000 - some states, including the Sunshine State and Ohio, threw up hurdles in 2004.

In 2000, many Florida voters, particularly in precincts in which blacks predominated voter registration, were turned away for various questionable reasons. This time around, again in Florida and in Ohio, the secretaries of state ruled that a voter had to show he lived in the precinct even to obtain a provisional ballot - one of the very rationales for having them. Subsequently a federal judge in Ohio held that a voter did have to be living in the precinct to cast a provisional ballot.

Another of the most glaring deficiencies is that in voting funds to the states for upgrading voting devices, there was no stipulation that one kind of machine or ballot be used in all states, leading to many states using multiple mechanisms.

In Ohio, paper ballots of the sort that caused such havoc in Florida in 2000 were still being used in most counties. In Florida, about half the voters used optical scanners that leave a paper trail to facilitate a recount and half used the touch-screen technology that left none. Some states attached printers to their touch-screen devices, some, like Florida, did not.

Unlike in 2000, when charges of outright fraud in Florida and elsewhere dominated the complaints, in 2004 in Ohio a major gripe was simply that Republican election officials put too few voting machines in traditional Democratic districts and more than enough in GOP strongholds. As a result, critics said, there were long waits in the former and quick and easy access in the latter, often suppressing the Democratic vote.

Finally, the practice of having a state's top elections official, supposedly neutral in overseeing the vote, allied or openly supporting one candidate demands reform. Blackwell was Bush's honorary state chairman in Ohio, just as Florida's secretary of state in 2000, Katherine Harris, was in that election.

John C. Bonifaz, general counsel for the National Voting Rights Institute, says the purpose of the Ohio recount was not simply to protect Kerry's interests, but also the interests of all voters in having their votes cast and counted in a legitimate election process.

"We wouldn't ask the voters of Ukraine to certify the election of their president in a fraudulent process," he says. "Why have a different standard here at home?" Bonifaz says the recount was not conducted "in accordance with constitutional standards" because of various irregularities at polling places.

Part of the new push for national election reform is a constitutional amendment introduced by Illinois Rep. Jesse L. Jackson Jr., son of the civil rights leader, that would explicitly guarantee all Americans the right to vote. It is a right many assume they have under other parts of the Constitution, including the due-process and equal-protection clauses of the 14th Amendment and under the 19th Amendment.

But Jackson cites the U.S. Supreme Court's 2000 observation in Bush v. Gore that "the individual citizen has no federal constitutional right to vote for electors for the President of the United States." The citation does go on to say "unless and until the state legislature chooses a statewide election as a means to implement its power to appoint members of the Electoral College."

Jackson would argue that the latter clause only confirms that an individual's right to vote is a state right, not a federal one, and that his amendment is necessary to establish that all Americans have an explicit voting right. The United States is one of 11 countries in the world, he says, in which the right is explicitly provided.

Bonifaz notes that when a citizen moves from one state to another he retains the protections of the First Amendment on freedom of religion, speech, press and assembly. Whereas, he says, the same citizen who moves from Maine to Florida faces different rights and prohibitions on voting.

Jackson's amendment would also require that the Electoral College in its voting for president reflect the majority popular vote in each state, noting that as of now state legislatures can act alone in picking electors.

Finally, the 2004 election, rather than being seen as a reaffirmation of the Electoral College, is cited by some as another argument for abolishing it. Had Bush lost Ohio on election night, Kerry would have been the Electoral College winner, and that outcome would have wiped out the much larger 3.5 million popular vote for Bush than the 539,000 vote majority for Al Gore in 2000.

The fact that Ohio had to endure a recount, one that could have jeopardized or delayed the certification of Bush for a second term, is a circumstance made possible by Electoral College voting. Without the requirement that the winning presidential candidate have a majority of the college, loss by recount of Ohio's 20 electoral votes would have made no difference in the outcome - Bush's re-election by clear popular vote.

In any event, the recount in Ohio, and reported irregularities in several other states, keeps the pot boiling on the need for further presidential election reforms, to make sure that a third straight election in 2008 is not threatened by allegations of serious voting problems.

What would serve the same purpose would be a landslide victory four years from now for one nominee or the other. But if the American electorate remains the "50-50 nation" it is considered to be, that's not likely to happen. Congress must, well before 2008, carry on the job it undertook to reform the presidential election process after 2000, but didn't finish, voting rights advocates say.

© Copyright 2005 Baltimore Sun

commondreams.org



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (70408)1/3/2005 6:20:29 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 89467
 
Billionaire Mark Cuban thinks Bush should "Do the Right Thing & Cancel Inauguration Parties"...

blogmaverick.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (70408)1/5/2005 11:03:32 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 89467
 
Scientists: Volcano Could Swamp U.S. with Mega-Tsunami

Tue Jan 4,11:43 AM ET

By Daniel Flynn

MADRID (Reuters) - A wall of water up to 55 yards high crashing into the Atlantic seaboard of the United States, flattening everything in its path -- not a Hollywood movie but a dire prophecy by some British and U.S. academics.

As the international community struggles to aid victims of last month's devastating tsunami in southern Asia, scientists warn an eruption of a volcano in Spain's Canary Islands could unleash a "mega-tsunami" larger than any in recorded history.

According to their controversial study, an explosion of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma could send a chunk of rock twice the size of the Isle of Wight into the Atlantic at up to 220 miles an hour.

Many experts believe the risk of "mega-tsunamis" from such a massive landslide on La Palma has been hugely overstated.

But in the study's scenario, energy released would equal the electricity consumption of the United States for six months, sending gigantic tidal waves across the Atlantic at the speed of a jet plane.

Devastation in the United States would reach trillions of dollars with tens of millions of lives at risk. Spain, Portugal, Britain, France, Brazil, the Caribbean and West Africa would also be swamped by giant waves.

"It may occur in the next eruption, which could be next year, or ... it may be 10 eruptions down the line," said Bill McGuire of Britain's Benfield Hazard Research Center.

Cumbre Vieja, which last exploded in 1971, typically erupts at intervals of between 20 and 200 years.

"We just don't know when it will happen, but are people prepared to take the risk after the Indian Ocean events?" McGuire said, calling for a program to monitor the slide in Cumbre Vieja's flank.

"We need to get people out in advance of the collapse itself. Once the collapse has happened, the Caribbean would have 9 hours, the U.S. 6 to 12 hours to evacuate tens of millions of people," he said.

SCAREMONGERING?

Other experts say such predictions about La Palma or the Hawaiian volcano of Kilauea are grossly exaggerated.

The Tsunami Society, an international association of experts, dismisses such theories as "scaremongering." It argues Cumbre Vieja would not collapse in a single block and the wave generated would be much smaller.

"We are talking about thousands of years in the future. Anything could happen. An asteroid could also fall on earth," George Pararas-Carayannis, founder of the Tsunami Society, said.

Many wave experts believe tsunami from abrupt landslides dissipate more quickly than those generated by powerful earthquakes, like the Dec. 26 quake off Indonesia which stretched thousands of miles along the ocean floor.

Charles Mader, editor of the Science of Tsunami Hazards journal and an expert on wave modeling, predicts that even in the event of a massive landslide on La Palma the tsunami reaching North America would be no more than 1 meter high.

But McGuire stands by the wave modeling for the La Palma tsunami, carried out by Steven Ward of the University of California.

As the world reels from the Indian Ocean disaster, which killed more than 150,000 people, oceanographers and geologists agree the threat of tsunamis has been underestimated.

"It would not surprise me at all if tomorrow we saw another tsunami like this," said Pararas-Carayannis, pointing to faults off Portugal, Puerto Rico and Peru as possible risks.

For McGuire, a warning system in the Indian Ocean could have completely prevented loss of life in Sri Lanka and India from south Asian tsunami, as in most cases people would only have had to travel 1 kilometer inland to avoid the waves.

He ranks tsunami risk as second only to global warming in the hazards facing the planet.

"With coastlines massively built up now, particularly in developing countries, tsunami are a big problem because, unlike earthquakes, they transmit death and destruction across entire oceans," he said.

tinyurl.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (70408)1/5/2005 11:06:49 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 89467
 
Bond bubble, American style

atimes.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (70408)1/5/2005 12:59:45 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 89467
 
Stand Up, Senator
______________________________

By William Rivers Pitt
t r u t h o u t | Report
Wednesday 05 January 2004

"Hope is not the conviction that something will turn out well, but the certainty that something makes sense regardless of how it turns out."

- Vaclav Havel

Four years ago, members of the Congressional Black Caucus ran deliberately and vociferously into a brick wall when they chose to stand and protest the deplorable election calamity in Florida. They sought the name of one Senator, just one, which they could append to their complaints. Had they gotten that one name, a debate and discussion on what happened in Florida would have taken place in the House and the Senate. No Senator came forward, and the debate never happened.

Now, four years later, another election has come and gone. Now, four years later, there are rafts of evidence which point, once again, to overwhelming disenfranchisement of minority voters. Now, four years later, members of the Congressional Black Caucus, along with several other House members, plan to stand once again and protest an election that failed to live up to the standards required of participatory democracy. Now, four years later, they seek a Senator to stand with them.

This time, a Senator must answer the call.

Four years ago, standing up was politically dangerous. The country had just endured a month of mayhem and charges and countercharges and overheated rhetoric. The Supreme Court had ruled, a judicial version of the loud voice from Mount Ararat that cannot be contravened. The tablets had been handed down.

The mainstream news media had launched into the soothing refrain, "This is an orderly transition of power...this is an orderly transition of power," and a Senator standing up in Congress to swat the hornet's nest again would have, bluntly, gotten their butt kicked up between their shoulderblades. Recall the line from the film ‘The Right Stuff': "It takes a special kind of man to volunteer for a suicide mission, especially one that's on TV." Four years ago, no one was feeling special enough to volunteer. Do not forget, as well, that candidate Gore asked his Senate colleagues not to join the CBC, so that they all might "heal the country."

The politics this time around are comparably dicey. Mainstream media coverage of election irregularities in Ohio and elsewhere has been meager at best. What coverage there has been has managed to be simultaneously disparaging and uninformed. Take, for example, the editorial from the Cleveland Plain-Dealer directed today at Rep. Tubbs-Jones and Rev. Jesse Jackson: "(Kerry) had the good grace and sense to acknowledge the abundantly obvious, go home and resume his life. You might consider emulating his excellent example, because what you are doing now - redoubling your effort in the face of a settled outcome - will only drive you further toward the political fringe. And that long grass already is tickling your knees."

A Senator who stands with Conyers and the CBC risks marginalization. A Senator who stands with Conyers risks blowing their credibility to smithereens on the eve of a fight over Bush's wacky judicial nominations, and on the eve of a fight over the very existence of the minority's ability to filibuster. A Senator who stands with Conyers and the CBC risks being targeted for defeat by an increasingly effective GOP machine.

The difference this time around, however, cannot be overstated, and is the reason why a Senator must step forward. Four years ago, the argument was about replacing Bush with Gore. This time, despite the earnest desires of millions of people, such an option is not on the table. The process itself, barring another edict from Ararat, precludes the notion that someone besides Bush will take the oath on January 20th. If Conyers and company stand and object with the support of a Senator, the Electoral College hearing will adjourn, and both the House and Senate will hear two hours of testimony on the reasons behind the objection. After the testimony, the House and Senate will have a straight up-or-down vote on whether to entertain the objection. Given the GOP dominance in both chambers, the outcome of such a vote is preordained.

Even if, by some miracle, both chambers vote to uphold the objections based on the merits of the testimony, and Ohio's 20 votes are removed from the Electoral College count, the waters beyond are muddy. The constitution is vague as to whether the 270 Electoral College threshold is an absolute, or whether the candidate with the most Electoral College votes is to be declared the winner, regardless of whether or not that 270-vote line is crossed. Bush would still lead Kerry 266 to 252 if Ohio were subtracted, and in all likelihood, would carry the day with that lead.

The difference this time politically for any Senator who stands up is that this fight is not about and must not be about replacing Bush with Kerry. This is about making sure that the greatest democracy in the history of the world lives up to that title. Rev. Jesse Jackson put it best when he said, "If America is to be a champion of democracy abroad, it must clean up its elections at home. If it is to complain of fraudulent and dishonest election practices abroad, it cannot condone them at home. But more important, if our own elections are to be legitimate, then they must be honest, open, with high national standards."

A Senator must stand up with Conyers and open the door to testimony on this election in both chambers of Congress. A Senator must stand up so a national dialogue on how we run elections is created and carried forward. That dialogue must include:

* The fact that Ohio Secretary of State Blackwell engineered a series of outlandish maneuvers designed to deny citizens the ability to vote before and during the election, including junking vast numbers of new voter applications because they were not on postcard-weight paper, by making sure that heavily Democratic and minority voting districts did not have enough voting machines to accommodate the number of voters who came out, and by revoking access to public records of the election to citizens attempting to lawfully audit the poll books;

* The fact that Warren County election officials shuttered the public counting of votes based upon their claim that the FBI warned that terrorists were coming to attack them. No FBI agent anywhere on the planet has acknowledged issuing this warning, and the ballots in Warren County were subsequently left unguarded and unprotected;

* The fact that a county in Ohio shows more votes than registered voters; the fact that another Ohio county shows an underfunded Democratic State Supreme Court candidate getting more votes than an incredibly-funded Democratic presidential candidate; the fact that one machine alone in one county gave Bush 3,893 more votes than he actually got; the fact that another county registered an unheard-of 98% turnout rate, and that county subsequently handed Bush 19,000 extra votes; the fact that in another county, at least 25 voting machines transferred an unknown number of Kerry votes to Bush.

This list goes on, and on, and on.

Protecting the right to vote is not and must not be a partisan issue in this country. The fact that candidates of both parties too often acquiesce to the so-called Nixon Rule on elections - a tacit agreement not to argue the outcome of questionable elections, which came about after the riddled-with-inconsistencies 1960 presidential race - means that people who do violate the public trust by violating the sanctity of the ballot are safe from censure, especially if their actions lead to a victory.

In a perfect world, all 100 Senators would stand up because of one simple fact: They are where they are because of the vote, and if they do not protect that vote, it may be them looking at the short end of the stick come some future election day. All 100 should stand, but it only takes one. It only takes one to move us closer to that more perfect union, where every vote counts and every vote is counted, where the citizenry can trust that the people leading them were properly chosen, where partisans acting in the dark of night to thwart that simple, admirable goal are exposed and purged from our system.

Stand up, Senator. Stand up.
______________________________________

William Rivers Pitt is a New York Times and internationally bestselling author of two books - 'War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know' and 'The Greatest Sedition Is Silence.'

-------



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (70408)1/28/2005 4:07:14 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 89467
 
Gold Analysts: Choose Wisely

Tuesday, January 25, 2005

Gold industry analysts predict mining stocks will get off to a slow start in 2005, hindered by what they believe is a short-term rally for the U.S. dollar. Longer term, the price of gold will resume its climb, pulling the gold stocks with it. Their advice? Be highly selective - some stocks will clearly outshine the pack. "A strengthening dollar looks set to put pressure on the miners in 1Q05, but we would see this as a period to prepare for gold sector entry points later in the quarter," said John Bridges, analyst with JP Morgan, in a recent report. "We remain positive on gold based on expectations for falling supply and likely continued dollar weakness once a short covering rally is over." Morgan suggested that the dollar could be boosted by hopes for reduced military spending, should the election in Iraq be deemed "successful." He also believes that the fall-off in gold production will impact gold producers that don't have large resources or projects awaiting development. "This could lead to equity dilution as such companies seek to buy new reserves." From north of the border Graeme Currie, author of Canaccord Capital's Junior Mining Weekly, is monitoring the TSX Canadian Gold Index (TTGD). "For the coming quarter we anticipate a positive trend in the sector, but we continue to reiterate that the market environment is such that selectivity remains a key consideration. We do not expect broad sector out-performance. We continue to recommend that speculative investors focus on companies with active and fully funded exploration and development programs." Don MacLean, Paradigm Capital, and Michael Fowler, Desjardins Securities, are both of the opinion that the current near-term correction will be followed by a more favorable market, once the dollar resumes what both believe will be a long-term decline.

"One cannot expect the U.S. dollar to weaken continuously, but we remain firm in our belief that the decline in this currency is a long-term, secular process," writes MacLean. "A variety of economists have argued that a 20% decline in the US$ is warranted. Our target is more modest for 2005 - a 7-10% decline. Thus, we believe that there is good reason to expect a commensurate 7-10% increase in gold in 2005, possibly touching $500/0z." According to MacLean, relatively flat global production, restrained producer hedging and substantially less central bank hedging than the current agreement among European Central Banks, all contribute to relatively supportive fundamentals for gold. Fowler agrees that the U.S. dollar is still on a long-term "major downward slide," but cautions that during the first part of the year, bullion and gold stocks may be under pressure. "The second half should be better as the U.S. dollar will likely continue its slide. Our 2005 average forecast of US$430/oz is under review, with an upward bias." According to Fowler, gold stocks did not fare well in 2004 as a result of cost pressures, which were in turn due to stronger producer currencies and higher energy costs. Fowler recommends investors keep to the larger names. His current favorite is Placer Dome. "This company should see reserve and resource increases and will likely make at least two production decisions in 2005," he says. Tanya Jakusconek, National Bank Financial, says her 2005 gold price outlook remains $425 per ounce. She believes that like 2004, 2005 will require investors to be stock specific in the gold group in order to make money. Her Top Picks remain Barrick Gold and Eldorado Gold, both of which "show production growth and declining costs as new projects are brought online."

The Gold Report
stockhouse.ca