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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (93387)	1/3/2005 2:48:12 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793843

More Ripple Effects from Iraq? Belgravia Dispatch Now, Egypt? In a country where public discussion of the president and his powers has been traditionally off-limits, activists are breaching a red line in ways that would have been unthinkable two years ago. They want to limit the president to two terms in office and to ensure that he is democratically chosen in a pluralist election. Prompted partly by a concern that the president may be preparing his son, Gamal, to succeed him - something which Mr Mubarak denies - critics of the regime have become increasingly vocal in their calls for change to the system. A few weeks ago hundreds of activists staged an unprecedented protest in Cairo to declare their opposition to a new term for Mr Mubarak. Many placed over their mouths stickers saying "Enough". (Hat Tip: UK Blogger Monty) Look, I don't want to sound silly over here so that, everytime some street protest or call for constitutional reforms occurs in the greater Middle East, we dutifully describe it in this space as another wondrous result of Iraq (the possibility of some arranged Gamal Mubarak succession seems to be the immediate catalyst spurring Egyptian discontent--but would protestors be quite so brazen in the absence of U.S. spearheaded democratization initiatives in the region?). In October, 26 civil society groups launched a petition demanding constitutional reforms before the expiry of the president's mandate. Mr Mubarak's government is also talking about reform They continue to collect signatures, and say they will eventually present the document to parliament. This challenge comes at a time when "reform" has become a catchword not only for the opposition, but also for the government. With the United States launching repeated initiatives for reform in the Middle East, all governments in the region feel under pressure to declare a commitment to some kind of change. "The government can clamp down on us," said human rights activist Ahmed Seif al-Islam. "But it would pay a heavily political price because it is trying to send a message to the West saying that is carrying out reforms." [emphasis added] It seems clear to me that pressure to liberalize societies in the region is being materially spurred on by things like the historic elections in Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine and the Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative. And that's, all told, a net positive--unless radical Islamists were likely to get voted in through free elections. Which I think is unlikely. belgraviadispatch.com