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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taikun who wrote (58147)	1/3/2005 4:34:26 PM
From: rz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Taikun, Thanks. When I will re-acquire appetite for commodities I will look into MSB. I cashed in my NG profits recently and am planning to invest them away from USD and excitement. I already bought some uninspiring issues in Asia and Europe which I will convert into local currencies on first sign of misbehavior. So, with safety thru diversification in mind, I am thinking of adding something related to Japanese real estate which I believe went thru the ringer already. So far I identified the following candidates: Daiwa House, Mitsubishi Estate, Mitsui Fudosan, Sekisui House, Sumitomo Realty&Development. To complicate matters, I just noticed, that Byron is trying to scare me with this prediction: 6. Japan slips back into recession as the yen strengthens and exports to China prove inadequate to keep the economy going. Investors begin to question the ability of Japan to thrive as a high-cost producer in a low-cost region. The Nikkei 225 approaches 10,000 again. On the other hand his idiotic prediction #7 gives me hope: 7. Vladimir Putin’s hard-line policies finally prove too much for the Russian people. Revelations of widespread corruption on top of the Ukraine election controversy precipitate a second Russian Revolution and Putin resigns. The economy slumps, the ruble weakens, and the Russian market declines 25%. What do you think? (about Japanese real estate, not Putin). Cheers, rz

To: Taikun who wrote (58147)	1/11/2005 3:30:25 AM
From: Taikun	Respond to of 74559

Tuesday January 11, 3:30 PM UPDATE: Australia's Portman Set To Unveil US Merger By Stephen Bell Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES PERTH (Dow Jones)--Driven by China's steel making boom, Australia's Portman Ltd. (PMM.AU) is likely to unveil a A$600 million takeover offer Wednesday from U.S.-based iron pellet producer Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF). The deal could prompt a further round of mergers in Australia's booming mining sector, which is already digesting Switzerland-based Xstrata Plc (XTA.LN)'s A$7.4 billion offer for WMC Resources Ltd. (WMR.AU). A person familiar with the situation said that Cleveland-Cliffs is in talks with Australia's third largest iron ore producer, which called a halt on its shares before Monday trade began. Portman shares last traded at A$3.05, valuing the group at A$536 million. A Sydney dealer said there is speculation that a bid could be pitched at A$3.60 a share, an 18% premium to Portman's last trade and 13% above its record high of A$3.19 in November. "We would expect a bid to be lodged tomorrow, and Cleveland-Cliffs is the most likely bidder," said Rob Brierley, an analyst at Patersons Securities in Perth. Tony Schoer, Portman's chief financial offer, declined to comment on the speculation. "We'll be making an announcement tomorrow before the market opens," he told Dow Jones Newswires. "It is definitely related to corporate activity, but we can't say anything more at the moment," Schoer added. Portman's share registry is dominated by financial institutions. U.K.-based Barclays Group is the biggest with an 8.4% stake. The company is being advised by Gresham Partners in its talks with Cleveland-Cliffs, with the Perth investment bank also advising Xstrata in its pitch for WMC Resources. Cleveland-Cliffs couldn't be contacted for comment. Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce SA (RIO) and Kumba Resources - partly-owned by U.K-based Anglo American Plc (AAUK) - have also been touted as potential acquirers of Portman, which exports most of its iron ore to China. However, it is believed that both companies regard Portman as too small. Portman controls only 1% of the seaborne trade in iron ore and is far smaller than industry giants BHP Billiton (BHP), Rio Tinto Plc (RTP) and CVRD. Those three companies control roughly 80% of the world's seaborne trade in the steel-making commodity. In contrast, Cleveland-Cliffs is valued at just over US$1 billion and would be a neater fit with an expanded Portman. Ohio-based Cleveland currently sells most of its iron pellets to domestic steel makers in North America. Chance For Cleveland-Cliffs To Diversify Patersons' Brierley believes that Portman offers Cleveland a "conduit" into the Chinese market, which consumes around three-quarters of Portman's production. "This would be a way for Cleveland-Cliffs to diversify and expand its customer base by using Portman's established relationships with Chinese steel mills," he said. China recently overtook Japan as the world's biggest importer of iron ore. A A$55 million expansion of Portman's Koolyanobbing iron ore mine in Western Australia is due to finish next year. The upgrade will lift annual production from 5.5 million metric tons to around eight million tons. Analysts expect benchmark iron ore prices to rise more than 30% next Japanese fiscal year starting April 1 as Asian steel mills try to lock in supplies of the key steel making ingredient. The latest round of price negotiations between Japanese buyers and the three biggest iron ore producers are set to begin in Tokyo Wednesday. BHP and Rio Tinto - which export mainly from Western Australia - and CVRD are in a strong position due to an acute shortage of iron ore in Asia, analysts say. Some analysts believe that the takeover interest in Portman will spread to smaller iron ore miners in Australia, such as Perth-based Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (MGX.AU). Mount Gibson shares rose nearly 6% Tuesday after the company said that a unit of China Railway Materials & Supplies Corporation, or CRMSC, recently bought a 5.9% stake in the company. The current Portman takeover speculation follows an unsuccessful merger approach from Perth-based Consolidated Minerals Ltd. (CSM.AU), which sold its Portman shares last month. Brokerage firm UBS said in a note to clients that Portman could potentially be worth A$5 a share and re-ignite takeover speculation for other mining companies that are involved in the steel-making process. "Other iron ore players that do not have substantial links to their customers already, if there is further appetite for iron ore, could include Midwest Corp. (MIS.AU), Mount Gibson Iron, and Aztec Resources Ltd. (AZR.AU)," UBS said. The broker said possible coal sector targets might include Macarthur Coal Ltd. (MCC.AU), Excel Coal Ltd. (EXL.AU) and Gloucester Coal Ltd. (GCL). "For manganese, one could consider Consolidated Minerals," it added. By Stephen Bell, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-8-9245-5120; stephen.bell@dowjones.com -Edited by Ian Pemberton