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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (93551)	1/4/2005 4:34:08 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793731

POlitics, applied blog - Predictions 05 Well, I figured that I might as well break out the old crystal ball and peak into the not to distant future that is foreign affairs in 2005. Here's what I think will unfold in '05. Iraq- The elections will go forward without the Sunnis participating in any meaningful sense. A representative group of Sunnis lacking any real ability to govern will be elected to interface with the Shia and Kurdish entities in a loose federation. As the insurgency continues to draw valuable support from the Sunni population, Iraq will not see any significant drop-off in violence until the summer months when the US spikes troop levels to near 200,000, placing dangerous levels of stress on an ill-designed force. As the borders become less porous and trends in violence begin to reverse themselves, additional nations will become increasingly willing to dispatch troops to join the coalition, albeit only to the relatively peaceful southern and northern regions, allowing the US to draw down from untenable troop levels by October. By the end of 2005, the Kurds and Shia will have functioning representative governments, operating in a loose federation with a representative Sunni entity. Violence will still plague the so-called Sunni triangle and its outer rim, but the current rates in violent incidents will be reduced dramatically, thus allowing the gradual integration of the Sunnis into a federated Iraq in time for national elections at the end of '05. The US will continue to draw down troops, but a sizable non-UN peacekeeping force, including the Russians and Indians, will stay to ensure that the insurgency remains suppressed. This force will be the first step in the evolution of an international Sys Admin force. Sudan- The Sudan will see negotiated peace settlements repeatedly broken by Khartoum and violence against the African Sudanese will continue. The US will not send boots to the Sudan in 2005, preferring instead to equip and train AU peacekeepers under NATO auspices. AU troops will be able to protect NGO's safeguard humanitarian aid missions, but they will not be able to disarm and disband the Janjawee militias alone. There will still be mass levels of violence, although not on the scale of genocide. By the end of 2005, lacking the will to send peacekeeping troops the international community will have lessened the suffering but will not have been able to resolve the conflict. North Korea- Before the end of the year, there will be much noise of a coup in North Korea. The US and China will be establishing contacts with generals in the regime who do not wish to go down with their great leader. Candidates to replace Kim Jong Il will be established by the end of the year and a deals will begin to be struck between the US, China, and the generals that will be involved. The ultimate goal will be to find generals who seek re-unification with the South. Cooperation between the US and China will help slightly to ease tensions between the two nations. Iran- The US will buy off the Iranians, in a sense. Giving Tehran security guarantees and offering to lift sanctions, the Bush administration will convince the Iranians to accept IAEA monitoring of their nuclear program, with the understanding that the Iranians could still pursue a program for "peaceful purposes". With the US threat diminished inside Iran, the legitimacy of the mullahs will be the primary grievance of Iranians, setting in motion events that will eventually culminate in another revolution. This will mark a shift in Us policy towards Iran, instead of isolating the US will choose to open up Iran in efforts to weaken the regime. Every new year is marked by optimism and so my predictions may seem hopeful, but in reality, almost regardless of what happen elsewhere, the Bush administration's legacy will be tied to Iraq. The next year in Iraq will be critical, I believe. A downward trend in violence needs to materialize as the nascent stages of a government emerge if there is to be anything other than diminished expectations. Feel free to comment and do your own forecasting as well.