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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (15084)	1/4/2005 11:53:06 AM
From: rkrw	Respond to of 52153

I can only guess appx is worth perhaps $25/share ex-abraxane. Injectable generics is a good business-high barrier to entry. 20X eps, 6X sales is around $24. Will be interesting to see where this lands, win or loss. Interestingly appx reports what eps would be taking out abraxane expenses, 29 cents last quarter. Could point to a lack of confidence---

To: Biomaven who wrote (15084)	1/4/2005 1:49:25 PM
From: zeta1961	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

"11:41 APPX American Pharma PDUFA date on Jan 8 (32.50 -3.61) -- Update -- From Briefing.com(?old news by now?<g>) Gosh, I'm tempted to play this long at these levels..50% float short for months! American Pharmaceutical Partners is probably among the most closely watched names this week as the PDUFA date for their Abraxane breast cancer drug is on Jan 8. Abraxane, formerly known as ABI-007 is a novel, Cremophor-free formulation of the commonly used cancer drug paclitaxel (Taxol). The question of course is, will it be approved? While earlier the sentiment on Abraxane was negative, with bears pointing towards the very low response rate in pivotal trial's Taxol arm, the sentiment has gradually improved. Yet, the close to 50% short interest still suggests there are a lot of non-believers out there... Merrill Lynch previews the event, saying in case of an outright approval they see an immediate price target of $47.71. Notes that if there is a significant short position in the stock at the time of the action, the shares could overshoot the target. In case the FDA requires additional trial(s) they see an immediate price target of $31.46. The target assumes Abraxane launch in 2008. The worst case scenario includes a non-approvable letter with an an immediate price target of $32.56. The target excludes all Abraxane-related expenses and assumes F2005 EPS of $1.48."