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To: BubbaFred who wrote (58222)	1/4/2005 1:57:30 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

How VoIP will develop. BF I don't have a reply 'pret a porter' but I will give you my opinion and let you make your own conclusions. Important Points to note: An operator -RBOCs Baby Bells- of time switch (voice over signaling system nr.7) a.k.a Plain Old Telephone Service or POTS a.k.a telcos spends 80% of OPEX to cater for 20% of its subscriber's base. However 80% of its profits come from 20% of its subscribers' base. This, operator described above, doesn't make money with my POTS line because I use it mostly to receive and send faxes and as answering machine. It makes money with the PABX of Lufthansa, the 0800 numbers of call centers of enterprises, leased lines to transport data, interconnection fees to connect and terminated all the calls originated by mobile operators and to carry faxes over their phone lines, and since a couple of years, by providing DSL broadband services. VoIP will port the minutes of calls transported over the POTS operators, above, to over the Internet. Let’s say, for illustration purposes, I use ADSL - a line originally laid out to provide dial tone- and use it now for broadband. If I make calls over this line, and I am paying my operator to use this ADSL line, pretty soon this operator can change his name form POTS operator to broadband operator since it doesn't matter if its money is coming from Internet use or voice calls. Now if I use VoIP to call mobile and mobile operators make their money solely -or lets the bulk- of voice, pretty soon it becomes clear that the threat is to mobile operators rather to fixed line operators. If POTS operators had already got rid of this nuisance phone lines (private people) that eats into their revenue stream (remember their 80 by 20 above) as they were ported to mobile operators where they became pre-paid subscribers. VoIP it is good for them because more of those nuisance subscribers that have to be billed and maintained and hog a phone and copper line to generate nothing. Always remember that POTS operators live to kill and kill to live. VoIP will progress by eating into the voice revenues of mobile operators. (I told Jay he'd short telcos at his own peril. Telcos would end up making a ton of money as they milk their infrastructure for the freaking last cent.) I anyone appears selling shares of VoIP operators don't buy it. If they appear selling gear it is worth a look. The guys who made money on the gold rush were not prospectors. Guys who sold food, picks, shovels, tents, hookers, whiskey, tobacco and such useful artifacts were the ones who profited.