Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (20412)	1/4/2005 5:51:40 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Yang: China Rust Similar to U.S. 01/03 14:47 By X.B. Yang Department of Plant Pathology Iowa State University The risk of soybean rust in Brazil is far greater than in the U.S. because of its unique tropic and sub-tropic climates. But since China and the U.S. have similar geographical size and latitude range for soybean production, a comparison between those two countries is more meaningful to what might happen in America. Soybean rust overwinters in southern China, and the southern U.S. is a potential overwintering area. After the pathogen establishes in North America, soybean rust epidemics are expected to depend on the long-distance dispersal of spores northward from the southern areas, a similar way they spread in China. The long-term risks of soybean rust to the United States can be determined by comparing the main risk factors affecting soybean rust epidemics. Overwintering Soybean rust is assumed to overwinter in southern China and neighboring countries south of China. In the United States, overwintering might be possible in parts of Florida and southern Texas and other coastal areas near the Gulf of Mexico during mild winters. In northern and central Mexico, potential overwintering areas are mainly in the eastern costal regions. The fungus can overwinter on Caribbean Islands, but the risk of it doing so is smaller than the risk of it overwintering in China. Growing season. Along the southern coast of China, soybeans are grown year-round. Soybean rust appears in the winter and spring on Hainan Island and in southern parts of the Gaungdong Province. In coastal areas, soybean rust occurs in spring and fall and the disease usually is observed in summer and fall in the Yangtze River area of central China. Summer is too hot in southern China for soybean rust infection. Continuous soybean production helps maintain high levels of inoculum. In the United States soybeans are grown almost exclusively as a summer crop. In China, excessive rainfalls have been associated with soybean rust epidemics, similar to what's reported in Brazil. To have a moderate epidemic - losses up to 30 percent – a minimum of 22 rain days in two months are needed. In the U.S., the average rain days in the Midwest are less than 20 days in July and August. But the U.S. has sufficient dew periods and cool temperatures during summer, which are favorable to rust infection. Two schools of opinions are popular if epidemics can occur in a season with plenty of dew but fewer rain days. This risk factor is yet to be understood. Wind pattern for spore dispersal. Compared with China, winds in the United States during a growing season are stronger and more southerly due to the north–south orientation of the Rocky Mountains. The nocturnal low-level jets with high nighttime humidity can facilitate the northward dispersal of soybean rust. This nocturnal jet during summer growing season is weaker and less frequent in China. Wind in the U.S. is more favorable to rust spore movement. Alternative hosts. The kudzu situation in the US is unique and remains a great uncertainty in the risk equation. The plant is a very good host in Asia and South America. Tests for soybean rust spores on U.S. kudzu have been mostly inconsistent, but spores were found on kudzu in Georgia in November. If significant portions of kudzu are susceptible in the U.S., its importance to potential soybean rust epidemics cannot be underestimated. Kudzu covers large areas of in the southern to central U.S. and might serve as an overwintering host because its leaves remain green during winters. In regions where soybean rust cannot overwinter, kudzu leaves that grow a month before soybean emerges in the spring may serve as a bridging host for spore increase and northward spread. (TD) dtnsoybeanrustcenter.com

To: RealMuLan who wrote (20412)	1/4/2005 6:50:12 PM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 116555

Sell the Dollar and Buy What? NEW YORK, Jan. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- The weak U.S. dollar will probably diminish profitability and investment outside the U.S., without having significant effects on U.S. prices or interest rates, according to the latest economic analysis by The Conference Board. "The dollar has been sold to buy almost everything one can think of -- especially in Asia," says Gail D. Fosler, Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of The Conference Board in the latest issue of StraightTalk, her newsletter prepared for Conference Board Associates. "Emerging market capital flows, while not back to their mid-1990s peaks, are running close to $250 billion, and although China still takes the lion's share of the flows to Asia, other Asian countries are enjoying strong capital flows for the first time in a very long time." The economic momentum going into 2005 is quite strong, and oil prices, although still high, are having relatively little impact on growth, according to The Conference Board analysis. Global growth will be concentrated in the first six to nine months of 2005, with the outlook for the second half of 2005 and 2006 weakening considerably and fraught with risk. The global business cycle is increasingly U.S.-centric. The ebbs and flows in U.S. industrial activity lead the global cycle and are roughly contemporaneous with the industrial cycle in Asia, including Japan. Also, despite important growth opportunities in the emerging markets, these markets are still underdeveloped from an institutional perspective and involve significant business and financial risk. The impact of the broad use of the dollar and, increasingly the euro in international transactions means businesses have to make real adjustments such as raising prices or productivity to offset the impact of a falling currency on their profitability. The Conference Board's Global Leading Index continues to point to a cyclical peak in industrial activity in the first half of 2005. What is striking is how closely linked the industrial cycles are among the global regions. Although Asia is certainly an important center of global growth, Asia's industrial cycles are more volatile than in the U.S. CHANGES IN ASIA Technology is an important driver of the Asian economies. Now that the rebound in this sector is complete, future gains are likely to be more moderate. The Conference Board's forecast for 2005 shows continued healthy gains in investment in most countries. But some of these gains will be in traditional manufacturing, which was pushed aside by the tech boom. Technology is itself taking on the characteristics of a mature industry, and its gains will be more in keeping with the overall industrial cycle. This represents an important structural change in the Asian outlook, because the tech sector has been such an important source of growth. The other important factor in Asia is China. China appears to be still growing at about a 9-9.5% annual rate, although, given the nature of many of the public indicators, it is hard to tell. The administrative procedures have had an impact on the construction sector, but the interest rate increases to date are very small. Many Chinese firms do not pay globally competitive rates for the cost of financing and have an incentive to hold very high inventories, especially in the commodity industries. Record foreign investment inflows -- exceeding $60 billion in 2004 -- and subsidies and wage gains in the rural sector are surely offsetting much of the effect of the efforts to slow the Chinese economy. The Chinese are likely to continue to raise interest rates, however, and at some point in late 2005 this will begin to take its toll. But even China's rapid growth has not succeeded in changing Asia's industrial dynamic as a whole. Industrial activity in Asia is on a slightly rising trend. But the industrial sector in the U.S., led by technology, has performed better. Even though most countries' exports to China are rising sharply, the China market is still too small to power what are, for the most part, reasonably well-developed economies. The rush of capital to Asia has driven emerging market bond yields down to their lowest premiums versus the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond since the mid- 1990s. Long-term bond yields in Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan are actually below U.S. Treasuries. mysan.de