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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sandintoes who wrote (3516)	1/4/2005 9:36:05 PM
From: Vendit™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Well there is also the shock jock.<g> UPDATE 1-Citadel radio takes 'shock-jock' Stern off the air Tue Jan 4, 2005 07:18 PM ET (Adds cities in paragraph 4) By Sue Zeidler LOS ANGELES, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Citadel Broadcasting Corp (CDL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) yanked Howard Stern from four stations this week and may never resume the show due to tensions over the controversial radio host's tendency to tout his upcoming move to satellite radio. Stern plans to leave terrestrial radio in 2006 when he moves his ribald show to Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) . "Regrettably, Mr. Stern has transformed the content of his show into a continuous infomercial promoting Sirius, his new satellite radio employer," Citadel said in a statement. The company had carried Stern on stations in Syracuse, New York; Providence, Rhode Island; Grand Rapids, Michigan; and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Stern had taken a two-week vacation break, but listeners were surprised when the show did not resume on Jan. 3 Citadel promised to keep its listeners advised as to whether or when Stern returns. yahoo.reuters.com

To: sandintoes who wrote (3516)	1/4/2005 9:50:47 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Well well well.... I posted on many occasions that I think inflation has been understated, and probably intentionally so in this election year. Incredibly, nobody seemed to think the fact that oil has been steadily rising was inflationary. As if sectors such as trucking and airlines could simply absorb the increased costs of doing business with no problem at all. Even with the recent pullback in oil prices, oil has increased over 50% in the last year, and close to double over the last 18 months, and now shows signs of stabilizing at support: futuresource.com Note the most recent candle, which suggests reversal. Also, stochastics are oversold, and there has been volume surge that looks like it will stop the correction in its tracks. I think we'll hear a lot more about inflation this year, and that news will not be appreciated by the market. Rising fuel prices have a cumulative effect, and this typically takes a long time to become apparent, especially in an otherwise strong economy. It is not like fuel prices have no effect on inflation at all until some threshold oil price is reached. The more gradual the price rise, the more delay there is in feeling its inflationary effects. The only thing that can possibly counteract those inflationary effects are earnings rising at a faster rate, but even that assumes companies will be willing to absorb the costs and not pass them along to customers, and simply settle for lesser earnings growth---a very dubious assumption at best, given their obligation to maximize shareholder value. Besides things like fuel prices, I think the real rate of inflation is not very accurately reflected by the reported PPI and especially the CPI. I think there are not many consumers who would agree their real costs have increased by 3% or less per year over the last year or two, regardless of what the CPI reports. If I am correct, eventually this will have economic repercussions. These are the kinds of slower moving forces that I think may cause some real problems for the economy (and stock markets) eventually, probably later this year. We'll have to wait and see how this plays out, but I think the kiss of death will be if we see a significant fall in real estate prices. If that starts to become likely, I'll be seriously considering going to cash, short duration fixed income, and long-term short positions. T

To: sandintoes who wrote (3516)	1/4/2005 9:57:47 PM
From: Vendit™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Re: Is this what threw the damper on the market? Your question is fundamental. I am technical. <g> Sandi - I think that this is always a volatile time of year. We always experience the Santa rally and then a brief sell off after Christmas followed by a few weeks of a Bull Market as we head into February. I believe that most market gains are to be hard between October and February of each year. You are better off to sit out the rest of the year. That sounds pretty boring, right? To answer your question, rising interest rates have actually been making the markets rally. I can only speculate that the time of year and technical condition (over-bought) of this market is what caused the sell-off today. Give it a day or two and everything will stabilize. Reid