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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quartersawyer who wrote (44002)	1/5/2005 10:37:04 AM
From: Jim Mullens	Respond to of 197427

chapq, Re: the UMTS “evolution” and , “Not easy to clarify for the non-technical reader, but variability among the proposals is clear.” Indeed! It’s good to see Qualcomm’s contributions (apparently significant ) and the concluding statement- “Emphasize backward compatibility” Realizing that “evil” forces are always at work, it appears to me that as long as the long-term path is “evolutionary” and not “revolutionary” and “Emphasize(s) backward compatibility”, CDMA / Qualcomm will be involved as well as our enduring investment in QCOM. Qualcomm’s snips >>>>> It has taken several thousands of man years to define, implement, test and deploy the UTRAN platform. The 3GPP evolution workshop provides an opportunity to discuss the future of the platform and in particular the guiding principles driving its evolution. As a 3GPP member, which is significantly contributing a fair amount of resources towards the success of the UMTS platform, QUALCOMM is fully supportive of a strong evolution path for the UTRAN platform. As a conclusion, we suggest to introduce a more flexible downlink configuration in the UTRAN platform. Specifically, we propose to consider a multicarrier CDMA downlink structure, which, due to its scalability and compatibility, appears particularly attractive. Report Conclusion snips>>>>> • Emphasize backward compatibility but possible to trade off vs performance and/or capability enhancements Qualcomm for their collaboration in the social event and the participants for the work.

To: quartersawyer who wrote (44002)	1/5/2005 11:55:36 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197427

Jim, the patent longevity threads from a couple of weeks ago are in play here. As 1 of the 26 Qualcomm has an agenda, but not necessarily a lock over the long haul No kidding. And, if you are a very long term investor, as I am, serious thought has to be given to Q's future prospects in light of these super 3G efforts as they relate to Q's IPR position. A few points in this regard. First, we have yet to reap the profits of the initial WCDMA rollout. The stock price still has a long ways to go [up] in this regard. Assuming all goes well, there is still a lot of appreciation to be had. In this sense, talk about future evolution is nice, but not really relevant in the mid-term, say, within the '07-'08 timeframe. Secondly, I think the long-term patent position--if one does not even consider OFDM--is probably secured to some extent by the fact that any future super 3G system is going to have to perforce be seamlessly compatible with WCDMA, which will be a sort of a legacy technology at some point but a very prevalent and robust one [finally] which will be very difficult to displace. If this is correct, then the need for seamless compatibility should provide substantial protection to the patent position. An aside--I never thought that we would ever have to consider WCDMA as a legacy technology in our investment calculus. We must be getting old! It is really impossible to factor in Q's OFDM IPR into the mix. I have yet to see any good discussions about it. Nonetheless, we know it exists and we know that Q really is the preeminent global wireless technology company. Thus, the least that can be said about it is "it doesn't hurt." Who knows, it might very well be a very strong and substantial position. However, an examination of the documents slacker graciously brought to the discussion--we really do need to acknowledge his contribution--suggests that it seems that there is a certain reluctance on Q's part to embrace OFDM. On the other hand, game-playing might be at work. The best that can be said at this point about OFDM IMO is "who knows." So, as I see it now, we have until about '08 or '09 to capitalize on our long term investments in a most profitable manner. If Q's patent and technology position in OFDM is strong, the appropriate investment mode would be--at least for me--to cash out to some extent within that time frame because, face it, Q is unlikely to be perceived as a growth stock then. The market will simply not give it the kind of P/E ratios it presently enjoys. If the OFDM IPR looks good and WCDMA looks to be with us for a long time, both fair assumptions, in my view, then it might be wise to keep some of the holdings past the '08-'09 time frame. In any event, things look good. Very good. FWIW.