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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (24123)	1/6/2005 1:52:25 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

<I mean we need buyers to prefer gold over any currency> Gold has become a haven for speculative funds, more so than true believers, and that's always been a issue. The spec/fund long position got pretty offside with 217,564 back in October. On 12/28 with POG back over 440, it was still 181,722. I'm betting there has been a huge historic flush in the last seven trading days though. We will get a glimpse through Tuesday when COTs come out tomorrow. The same fund flush thing happened in energy, and now we actually have commercials longs there. I doubt that (commercial longs) will happen again in gold, but if we got the specs down under 100,000, that would be very bullish, especially combined with the emergence of GLD (which is and will attract true gold long term gold holders IMO).

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (24123)	1/6/2005 4:58:32 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

By that, I mean we need buyers to prefer gold over any currency. As long as there are strong currency moves in ANY major currency this is not very possible. IOW perhaps currencies need to be realigned first before gold makes its final huge push up. Until that happens it is going to remain at the mercy of the US$. In the absense of any strong currency moves in any direction (US EU BP YEN) Those relationships get ironed out and everone realizes they ALL suck..... That is when gold takes off. Mish