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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (20659)	1/6/2005 10:55:28 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

To the deflationist gold bugs, with all the Japanese savings plus the deflation they have seen, why hasn't gold risen during their turmoil? They had enough money to finance our lifestyles and a tech bubble, but not enough to move "scarce" gold? Because gold moves with the US$, the world's (for now) reserve currency Mish

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (20659)	1/7/2005 12:55:35 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Collection of posts from Heinz on gold and oil Date: Thu Jan 06 2005 12:31 trotsky (the Vet) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved asks: "Gold is now trading lower than this time last year and the USD is also a lot lower. Where did that oft repeated inverse relationship break down?" the answer is of course that it didn't 'break down', but that it involves leads and lags. if one overlays a three year chart of the DXY with a three year chart of the USD PoG, the inverse correlation is rather obvious, as are the frequent lead/lag periods. statistically it's one of the most reliable and pronounced inverse correlations in the markets for the past 35 years ( over 90% for the entire period ) . Date: Thu Jan 06 2005 12:22 trotsky (siempre, 10:26) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved even the permabulls must surely see that something doesn't quite add up here. it's an example of selective data focus, not dissimilar to the 'visible inventories' ploy. for instance, SSRI alone reports about 2.2 billion ounces in silver resources. these are NOT proven reserves, and yet we can be pretty sure that they are present in the earth's crust. iow, the discrepancy between what exists below ground and proven reserves reported by miners has to do with the economics of resource extraction. it makes e.g. no sense for SSRI to prove reserves it isn't planning to extract in the near future. furthermore, looking at the USGS report, a proven reserve base of 570,000 tons vs. annual production of 19,000 tons doesn't exactly strike me as giving cause for alarm. we're looking at reserves representing 30 years worth of production. so well before the remaining below ground silver ( not to forget, resources are continually upgraded to reserve status as extraction proceeds ) becomes a real concern, most of us will already inhabit the next world. Date: Thu Jan 06 2005 11:59 trotsky (crude oil) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved getting frisky. remember, the small specs are still net short crude - with big specs holding only a very small net long position. iow it's long commercial hedgers vs. short small speculators. at nearly 20,000 contracts net, this small spec short position is actually very large historically - more near term strength is likely. speculators are also slightly net short all the other energy futures. per se this isn't meaningful but it is somewhat surprising considering energy has been in a pretty convincing bull market. Date: Thu Jan 06 2005 11:42 trotsky (Caper, 8:55) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "The only debate among currency traders and strategists appears to be about how much further it has to fall, which currencies are likely to benefit most in 2005, and when." if that's true, it can only go up. i suspect it isn't entirely true though. lots of people calling for a bottom as far as i can tell. Date: Thu Jan 06 2005 11:39 trotsky (Caper, 8:53) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "Pessimists may worry about worst-case scenarios, but economic disasters, unlike natural disasters, can be prevented through better planning and management." i'm not so sure about that. if economies could be improved via careful central 'planning' the Soviet Union would have been a utopia. all indications in fact are that 'planning' is the very last thing economies need. it's what got us into the mess in the first place. Date: Thu Jan 06 2005 10:42 trotsky (mugwump@mogambo&casey) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved this kind of talk is the very last thing you want to hear as a bull. as an aside, gold is worth what the market says it's worth - not some pipe dream number made up by overly enthusiastic analysts.

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (20659)	1/7/2005 8:23:03 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

French Dec consumer confidence indicator -25 vs -23 in Nov; consensus -21 Thursday, January 6, 2005 8:11:37 AM afxpress.com PARIS (AFX) - A composite indicator of consumer confidence fell to -25 in December from -23 in November, according to a monthly survey carried out by statistics office Insee. The indicator represents the balance in percentage points between consumers having experienced, or expecting, a rise in their living standard and those seeing a decline. Economists polled by AFX News had been expecting the indicator to improve to -21 in December The indicator on consumers' past personal financial situation was -18 in December compared with -16 a month earlier, while the outlook for personal finances was -2 versus -4. Past French standard of living was -57 compared with -54 the month before, and the outlook for the French standard of living fell to -33 versus -27. The Insee indicator showing the inclination to buy consumer goods was -15 for the month against -13 in November.

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (20659)	1/7/2005 9:11:51 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. Dec. nonfarm payrolls rise by 157,000 - Friday, January 7, 2005 1:59:47 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by a seasonally adjusted 157,000 in December while the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.4 percent, the Labor Department said Friday. With upward revisions of 34,000 to previous months, December payroll growth was close to expectations of 178,000. For all of 2004, 2.231 million jobs were added, the best since 1999, based on the business establishment survey. "No surprises here," said Joshua Shapiro, chief economist for MFR. "Underlying job growth appears to be in the 175,000 to 200,000 per month range."Â Average hourly earnings rose by 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $15.86 in December, less than the 0.2 percent expected by economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch. Average hourly earnings have increased 2.7 percent in the past 12 months, the fastest growth since the summer of 2003, but slower than inflation of 3.5 percent Financial markets cheered the news. U.S. stock futures gained, while Treasurys enjoyed a brief relief rally. The U.S. dollar gained. The figures are likely to have little impact on the decisions of the Federal Reserve to gradually raise interest rates from very low levels to a more neutral rate. The Federal Open Market Committee meets again on Feb. 1 and 2. The FOMC has indicated it is growing more concerned about higher inflation than weaker growth. The mild gain in hourly earnings should mollify those fears somewhat The average workweek added back a tenth of an hour to 33.8 hours in December. The total number of hours worked in the economy grew by 0.4 percent Manufacturing industries added 3,000 jobs in December, the first gain since August. For all of 2004, factory jobs grew by 76,000, the first annual increase since 1997. Construction industries added 7,000 jobs, the 10th increase in a row. The sector added 258,000 jobs during the year Service-producing jobs grew by 144,000 in December, despite the loss of nearly 20,000 jobs in the retail sector. The services sector added 1.9 million jobs in 2004 Within services, business and professional services added 41,000 jobs in December, including 10,000 in computers and 9,000 temporary jobs. Temp jobs grew by 206,000 in 2004 A separate survey of households painted a slightly weaker picture of the employment market. Unemployment grew by 27,000 in the month to 8.047 million, while employment fell by 137,000. Economists have cautioned that the business survey is a more accurate gauge of the labor market. Long-term unemployment remained high. Of the 8 million people classified as unemployed, 1.6 million or 20.2 percent, had been out of work longer than six months. A year ago, the figure was 1.9 million

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (20659)	1/7/2005 9:22:26 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

eurodollar action (treasuries did the same thing I believe) anyone with stops +-10 full points got a royal screw job (not me cause I have seen this sh*t before) 5 seconds before the jobs number came out futures plunged 5-12 points depending on the month On the release futures were +4 to +10 depending on the contract They quickly but not immediately sold off to -4 to -7 depending on the contract. 45 minutes after the release they are flat to -3 My globex quotes went out and I coud not take advantage of anything either way. (I could see trades e.g. price action, but I could not see bids, asks, or sizes. not tradeable to me without volume action) Mish

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (20659)	1/7/2005 9:27:05 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK Services slowdown renews hopes of cut in interest rates Ashley Seager Friday January 7, 2005 The Guardian Growth in Britain's service sector unexpectedly slowed to a three-month low last month while confidence among firms tumbled to its worst in a year and a half, a survey released yesterday showed. Economists said the news meant the Bank of England was now highly unlikely to raise interest rates again any time soon and may even consider cutting them if the service sector, which accounts for two thirds of the economy, remains weak. The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said its monthly purchasing managers' index of service sector activity fell to 54.9 in December - from 56.7 the month before - and the worst since September. City pundits had forecast 56.5. The business expectations index edged down to 73.7 in December from 74.1, the lowest since June 2003 when confidence had taken a knock from the war in Iraq. The news was enough to push the pound down to a six-week low against the dollar as the market felt there was now more likelihood that interest rates had peaked, thereby potentially reducing the attraction of sterling assets. Most of the sub-indices of the report fell back between one and two points but employment suffered the biggest drop. The fall in the overall index still left activity well above the 50 "no change" level and considerably better than the 52.6 score registered by the eurozone in its PMI survey released on Wednesday. The Bank's monetary policy committee will also take comfort from the survey's price indices, both of which fell back because of a 9% fall in oil prices in December. The out put price index fell to a 10-month low of 52.8. Jonathan Loynes, economist at Capital Economics, said: "Overall, together with the fall in the manufacturing PMI already reported, today's survey suggests that any rebound in GDP growth in Q4 will be limited. Together with the weaker tone of recent housing-related data, we expect the MPC to start considering lower rates soon." Until a few months ago financial markets were pricing in interest rates up to 5.5% by the middle of this year but they have since scaled back expectations and now think rates are unlikely to rise again. The main reason for the change of heart has been a sharp slowdown in the housing market which could eventually depress consumer spending which, in turn, has been the main driver of the economy for some years. money.guardian.co.uk