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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (24215)	1/8/2005 1:03:22 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

That's the bottom line - none of the measures show any indication that the Money Supply is contracting. As you can see, we can *try* to make a case that the money supply *might* be growing more slowly - but it's far from convincing. If housing collapses then we'll certainly see a big decline in money supply - just as we'll see a definite slowing in the money supply growth if the Fed gets serious about raising interest rates. But so far the Fed is just blowing a bunch of hot air. The decline in the November Consumer Credit may indeed presage a change in the Money Supply data to be released next month. If the Fed raised interest rates to 14% tomorrow, yet the money supply remained unchanged, I'm confident I could still borrow money around 5%. .

To: mishedlo who wrote (24215)	1/8/2005 8:54:56 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

US Money supply doesn't even come close to measuring global Dollar based liquidity. The data I've been posting religiously does. The "credit creation" material Doug Noland writes also is a good source for this. I would say there is only an attempt to return to trendline (as a USD defense) jessel.100megsfree3.com after a dramatic overshot in the Labor Day to Dec. 8th period, jessel.100megsfree3.com but I would hardly call a four week hiatus in monetary heroin injections deflationary. The addict will experience worse and worse withdrawal symptoms if this cold turkey continues, but there is just too much in the pipeline to have any discussion whatsoever of a deflationary bust (totally different from cold turkey addict withdrawal) as yet.