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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (24277)	1/9/2005 9:11:20 AM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The USD Rally is Too Sharp To Not Have its Own Corrective internals that are likely to take over soon, likely this week. More broadly, the bounce/rally is not derived from any kind of sentiment bottom. There is no sense that the USDX had gone far enough, no sense of "recognition" that a rally is now sustainable. A sustainable rally could have been built from below 80.00, imo. If one suspects however the rally from 80.31 was "engineered" then IMO that engineering merely set the USD up for a more terrible fall. Message 20929602 On the matter of USD trading analysis, I remain skeptical that review of the USDX Futures Contracts or the aggregate FX contracts (USD against the majors) gives the kind of Tell the same review would produce for things like copper, gold, oil, etc. I notice that Justin LaHart in the WSJ (Get Shorty)attempted this in early to mid December by looking at the USDX contracts. He concluded the anti-dollar trade was offside--which I suppose "everyone" agreed with at that time. However, I would point out that a Counter-Trend Consensus developed very quickly in December that a Dollar Rally was inevitable. On a very short-term level, I think this Counter-Trend consensus produced the hot and fresh Lows in the USDX in late December, after LaHart's article and to the surprise of the Dollar Rally Crowd. I would not go so far to say that analysis of the Futures Contracts is without utility. Just that the entire world is long dollars, and the daily FX trade is 1.9 trillion with 90% of that volume involving the USD. Best, LP

To: russwinter who wrote (24277)	1/9/2005 12:06:21 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

russ - traders are meaningless longer term in the whole scheme of FX manipulation they may amplify movements that's all. The big players are the CB's, Multinationals and the perception of general business. For some strange reason economic growth catapults every thing else trade deficits, budget deficits, savings etc. The perception is that economic growth including hedonics and other smoke and mirrors gimmickry which point to higher rates and justify carry trades. Until the issue of GDP will not be measured equally all over the world the monkeys at the MC Banks will have their field day.