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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (155727)	1/9/2005 3:39:00 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 281500

Since we are agreeing with Mq these days perhaps more than before, have you altered your view on where this is all headed in iraq? I am thinking realism, fallback positions, preventing real civil war and by helping secure kurds(hopefull with kurd/turk talks to follow) and shiaa(along with iran--perhaps even improving relations with iran along the way). I really don't have any hard and fast opinions as to where we will be in the next 6 to 18 months. There are two main components to Iraq's future, the external and the internal. From an internal standpoint, my best guess is that the elections will go forward, that the majority of Iraqis, i.e., Shias, will support whatever government is elected, that the election of a government will do a lot to stabilize the situation, and that we will see increased Iraqification of the fight against the insurgents. There will naturally be a lot of violence, but I think it will slowly wind down to a manageable amount. We will offer lots of aid and assistance. I don't think there will be an all-encompassing civil war because the Shias will in all probability stick together. Naturally, this does not mean that all sectarian conflict will be avoided; some will undoubtedly take place. If the Sunnis are convinced that the new political structure effectively protects their minority rights, perhaps the insurgency will wind down. The new Constitution is is designed to protect Sunni rights in theory, but we all know that theory and practice are often two distinctly different things. The Sunnis are acutely aware of this phenomenon. If they are allowed to live in peace and they do the same, perhaps things might turn out OK. One of the keys will be reconciliation between the various factions. I cannot predict this aspect of things. There are lots of debts to be paid: I don't think they will all be forgiven. There is a great little section heading in the latest issue of FA that I think captures brilliantly and pithily an internal structural problem Iraqi political culture presents to any progress towards democracy. The heading says "No democracy without democrats," which I think is an apt description of a signficant part of the problem. Democracy has never been established in Iraq. Its populace's lack of experience with the compromises and trust it requires to work effectively may prove to be too much. We'll see. The external factors might very well present a more daunting challenge to Iraqi democracy than the internal. There are a lot of forces and players arrayed against democracy in Iraq, from the Saudis to the Syrians to the Iranians to the terrorists. None of these players wish for democracy as it highlights their failings. How vigorously they will oppose a fledgling Iraq democracy is hard to say, particularly if the US issues credible threats and/or takes military action against those who may foster the insurgency after the elections. Syria is going to suffer some damage, the threats have already been made, but the question is what we will be able to do in a real sense against Iran and the Saudis--precious little I suspect--and it may therefore be that they will be able to continue to effectively place obstacles to Iraq's progress into democracy.